The Market Radar

We anticipate, monitor, and comment on market moving global economic and geopolitical issues.  No dark side brooding, no wanting the world to end, no political rants.  Traders, investors, policymakers, or market observers can’t  afford to ignore us.

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Picture of the Day

Perfection.

Koufax

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Weekend Lecture: Structural Opportunities in the US Economy

Speaker: Jason Furman
Chair: Professor John Van Reenen

Recorded on 5 November 2014.

Jason Furman’s talk will focus on the three major structural opportunities that he sees in the US economy: the slowdown in health costs; the boom in energy; and recent developments in technology. These issues have the potential to change long-term economic trends and structures. He will discuss the prospects they hold for the economy, the challenges they present, and the role of public policy in fostering them.

Jason Furman (@CEAChair) is the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers. Prior to this role, he served as the Principal Deputy Director of the National Economic Council. Furman has also previously served as Economic Policy Director for Obama for America, Director of the Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution, and Special Assistant to the President for Economic Policy during the Clinton Administration. He has conducted research in a wide range of areas, including fiscal policy, tax policy, health economics, Social Security, and monetary policy. Furman earned his Ph.D. in Economics and a M.A. in Government from Harvard University and a M.Sc. in Economics from LSE.

John Van Reenen is the Director of CEP.

The Centre for Economic Performance (@CEP_LSE) is an interdisciplinary research centre at the LSE Research Laboratory. It was established by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) in 1990 and is now one of the leading economic research groups in Europe.

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US Sector ETF Performance – November 21

Sector_ETF_DAYSector_ETF_WeekSector_ETF_MonthSector_ETF_QSector_ETF_YTD

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Daily Risk Monitor – November 21

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RiskMon_1RiskMon_2RiskMon_3

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Iron ore put through the mill – FT

Lex’s Robert Armstrong and Joseph Cotterill discuss the impact on miners such as Rio Tinto and BP Billiton of the large drop in the iron ore price, and whether this creates value in the falling shares.

Make better investment decisions with Lex
http://www.ft.com/lex

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US Sector ETF Performance – November 20

Sector_ETF_DAYSector_ETF_YTD

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Daily Risk Monitor – November 20

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RiskMon_1RiskMon_2RiskMon_3

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Philly Fed’s highest reading since December 1993

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve reported its Business Outlook this morning,

The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, increased from 20.7 in October to 40.8 this month and has now been positive for nine consecutive months (see Chart). This was the highest reading since December 1993. The percentage of firms reporting increased activity this month (49 percent) was significantly greater than the percentage reporting decreased activity (9 percent).

Both the current new orders and shipments indexes rose from their readings in October. The current new orders index, which reflects the demand for manufactured goods, increased 18 points, to 35.7. Over 44 percent of the firms reported a rise in new orders, compared with 36 percent last month.

Labor market indicators showed improvement this month. The current employment index rose 10 points in November, to 22.4, and hit a 3½ year high. Twenty-nine percent of the firms reported increases in employment compared with 20 percent that reported increased employment last month. Firms also reported higher work hours, with the average workweek index rising from -1.3 to 7.8 this month.

There are some caveats to the report, however.   CNBC notes,

Economists were quick to pour cold water on the number, suggesting it was an aberration unlikely to hold up.

…this particular number would indicate expansion faster than anyone is imagining.

In fact, the reading would be consistent with a 6.5 percent growth in the gross domestic product in the fourth quarter, according to Capital Economics, which said the reading likely will fall back to reality in December.

Nov20_PhillyFed

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Reforming South Korea’s chaebol – FT

South Korea’s corporate model of tightly knit companies that act in concert under family control is under scrutiny after Hyundai’s $10bn purchase of a plot of land in Seoul’s Gangnam district. The FT’s Simon Mundy weighs the model’s pros and cons.

The latest on companies news
http://www.ft.com/companies

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Alibaba Fibonacci Retracement Levels

Alibaba has been selling off hard over the past week to the surprise of many, including, painfully, us.  It’s now down 9.3 percent from last week’s high at 120.  The stock bounced near its 20-day moving average today, closing off 1.80 percent.  The 20-day moving average is at 107.08 and rising and the key Fibonacci retracement levels are shown below.   Stay tuned.

Nov19_Alibaba

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