The Market Radar

We anticipate, monitor, and comment on market moving global economic and geopolitical issues.  No dark side brooding, no wanting the world to end, no political rants.  Traders, investors, policymakers, or market observers can’t  afford to ignore us.

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Peter Thiel on Charlie Rose

Charlie RoseNice interview with Peter Thiel.   The interview begins at the 38:55 marker, which is the number of minutes left on the video.   The first intevieiw with golf commentator, David Feherty, is also  interesting.

Click here  for interview

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Daily Risk Monitor – September 23

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US Sector ETF Performance – September 23

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The Germans Are Coming

Interesting piece in today’s Investor’s Business Daily on German buyouts of U.S. companies (see chart below).   Money quotes:

In total, there has been $64.5 billion worth of German acquisitions of U.S. targets in 2014, according to Thomson Reuters. That beats any full year in the 20 years that Thomson has tracked.

“Three of the four largest-ever German acquisitions in the United States have taken place this year, the largest-ever being Daimler-Benz’s acquisition of Chrysler back in 1998,” said Richard Peterson, senior director at S&P Capital IQ.

What’s driving the trend? Some of the most venerable German giants have been reorganizing and refocusing their businesses, reflected in the fact that they’ve been selling as well as buying. Just last week Bayer announced that it’s spinning off its polymer business into a separate company. Last month, Siemens agreed to sell its health care IT business to CernerCERN for $1.3 billion.

There are also industry-specific reasons why they chose their targets. Big pharma’s acquisition strategy has been guided for the last few years by the idea that a product category isn’t worth being in unless you’re No. 1 or No. 2, which the Bayer and Merck buyouts help accomplish. SAP’s buyout expanded the company further into the hot cloud-computing space, while Dresser-Rand brings Siemens a play on the shale-oil boom.

“One factor that might connect the various deals (but I would not overstretch this point) is that emerging market growth has slowed down a little and the political risk in these markets receives more attention again,” Christian Stadler, associate professor at the Warwick Business School in Coventry, U.K., told IBD in an email. “This means that developed markets are gaining more interest again. Now once you look at developed markets, you notice that the U.S. is doing better than Europe and Japan.”

S&P’s Peterson cited signs that the European economy is slowing, which encourages companies to buy their way to growth. Lack of revenue gains is a unifying theme of all these buyers: the top performer among them is SAP, whose sales grew a whopping 8% year-over-year last quarter.

Peterson also suggested that the stronger dollar might be putting the German buyers in more of a hurry to close the deals before their targets get too pricey.

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Daily Risk Monitor – September 22

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US Sector ETF Performance – September 22

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The benefits of getting rid of cash – Economist

The Economist explains: technology like digital wallets and electronic payments are becoming more accessible. So do we even need coins and notes any more? For more video content from The Economist visit our website: http://econ.st/1vJDt98

 

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Daily Risk Monitor – September 19

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US Sector ETF Performance – September 19

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Weekend Lecture: Martin Wolf at the LSE

Recorded on 16 September 2014 in Old Theatre, Old Building.

Chief Economics Commentator of the Financial Times Martin Wolf gives an insightful and timely analysis of why the financial crisis occurred, and of the radical reforms needed if we are to avoid a future repeat. At this event he will be in conversation with Adair Turner.

This event marks the publication of The Shifts and The Shocks.

Martin Wolf (@martinwolf_) is Associate Editor and Chief Economics Commentator at the Financial Times, London. He has been visiting professor of Oxford and Nottingham Universities, a fellow of the World Economic Forum in Davos, and a member of the UK’s Vickers Commission on Banking, which reported in 2011. He is an honorary graduate of LSE.

Adair Turner has combined careers in business, public policy and academia. He became Chairman of the United Kingdom Financial Services Authority as the financial crisis broke in September 2008. He is now a Senior Fellow of the Institute for New Economic Thinking, and at the Centre for Financial Studies in Frankfurt. Lord Turner became a cross-bench member of the House of Lords in 2005.

The Department of Economics at LSE (@LSEEcon) is one of the largest economics departments in the world. Its size ensures that all areas of economics are strongly represented in both research and teaching. – LSE

Note:  Martin Wolf Lectures starts at about 3.40 min into video

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