Monthly Archives: September 2010

China’s September PMI 53.8 v. August 51.7

Posted on September 30, 2010 by

China’s PMI came in at 53.8,  erasing fears the economy was slowing.  A decent ISM (54.5   consensus) tomorrow will set a positive tone for Q4.  Recall our analysis of the under invested private pension funds sector (see chart below), which … Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

The “Catch-Up”Trade

Posted on September 30, 2010 by

Interesting chart of today’s activity.  They sold the grains and bought crude, which has been a laggard.  The “catch-up” trade, where laggards outperform,  may be the theme of the markets for the next few weeks.

Posted in Bonds, BRICs, Commodities, Credit, Currency, Equities, Gold | Tagged , , , , | 3 Comments

Will the Republican “Young Guns” Lasso Gold?

Posted on September 30, 2010 by

We’ve commented that an off-radar risk to gold is the hard money inclinations of the Republican leadership.  A Republican House in the next Congress is a done deal according to the prediction markets.  Intrade gives the scenario a 75 percent probability. … Continue reading →

Posted in Commodities, Currency, Geopolitical, Gold, Monetary Policy | Tagged , , , | 3 Comments

Black Swans Everywhere

Posted on September 29, 2010 by

Equities are holding up well given some very ugly headlines (see below).   The markets ignored the strikes in Europe today, which is quite remarkable as it was the live CNBC video feed of the Greek riots that got the flash … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Commodities, Currency, Geopolitical | Leave a comment

Solar “Death Ray” Burns Lawyer. Stocks Up Big!

Posted on September 29, 2010 by

Wow!  This sounds like something out of Shakespeare Star Wars.   The Daily Tech reports, Hotel Accidentally Makes Solar “Death Ray,” Burns Lawyer… Bill Pintas was vacationing in Las Vegas when he decided to stay at the swank new Vdara … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities | Tagged , | Leave a comment

What is Spec? Baby, don’t hurt me, don’t me. No more!

Posted on September 29, 2010 by

Molycorp (MCP) and the rare earthers are getting hammered again today on reports that China has lifted the ban on REEs to Japan.   [Schrödinger's] cat is out the bag and to think it is business as usual is complete nonsense.   … Continue reading →

Posted in China, Commodities, Equities, Gold, Rare Earth Elements | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Pension Funds Under Allocated to Equities – Fuel for Rally?

Posted on September 28, 2010 by

Just a quick post of an interesting chart we constructed after a night of data crunching.  This is preliminary analysis as we still need to look at flows versus valuation effects, and the data should also be viewed with a … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Credit, Equities | 3 Comments

The New Gold Rush?

Posted on September 28, 2010 by

Rare Earth (REE) stocks,  including Molycorp,  got hammered today and we added a little to our position.  These  stocks are over extended as most are up over 100 percent in the past month. We believe this story has legs and … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Commodities, Equities, Geopolitical, Gold, Rare Earth Elements | Tagged , | 3 Comments

The 10-year sets sail for 2 percent…

Posted on September 28, 2010 by

The 10-year closed at 2.46 percent today, a 20-month low,  on the back of weak consumer confidence.  Bond buyers and traders hear the horn of QE2 and anticipate a  [Kentucky] FED take-out at higher prices. Stocks up,  commodities x/grains up,  … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Credit, Currency, Equities, Gold | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

The Quantum Mechanics of the U.S. Bond Market

Posted on September 27, 2010 by

The 10-year Treasury rate fell almost 10 bps to close at 2.52 percent,  just 4 bps off its August 24 recent low.   A close below 2.50 percent will clear the way for a move to challenge the December ’08 low … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Risk | 5 Comments