Monthly Archives: November 2010

Will It Hold?

Posted on November 30, 2010 by

China ‘s PMI came in at 55.2 from 54.7 in October, better than expected.  The reports also showed input prices surging, however, reinforcing expectations that interest rate hikes are imminent.   The Shanghai Composite is right at its 200-day moving average … Continue reading →

Posted in China, Equities | Tagged , | 1 Comment

ECB About to PIIG Out on Bonds. Gold to the Moon.

Posted on November 30, 2010 by

Just a few short weeks after German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble criticized U.S. monetary policy with his “with all due respect, U.S. policy is clueless” statement, the FT reports the ECB is contemplating expanding its sovereign bond purchase program.  That … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Currency, Euro, Fiscal Policy, Gold, PIIGS, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Where is Gold Headed?

Posted on November 30, 2010 by

In 1996, we visited the Bulgarian central bank at a time when the country was experiencing economic turmoil and a loss of confidence that the government could rollover its maturing debt.  After a long discussion on the domestic economy and … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Commodities, Currency, Euro, Fiscal Policy, Gold, PIIGS, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Euro Trashed!

Posted on November 29, 2010 by

Dennis Gartman (click here for video) said today the Euro has “almost terminal problems”and eventually “breaks apart”  into a Northern Euro and Southern Euro.  The currency broke its 200-day moving average against the dollar and looks headed to a very … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Currency, Euro, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Chart of the Day: PIIGS Bond Maturities

Posted on November 29, 2010 by

This is a major factor contributing to the Eurozone stress that just won’t go away.  SpiegelOnline charts show the PIIGS must redeem bonds totaling over Euro45o BN in 2011, of which, Euro 128.3BN are Spanish Bonds and Euro264.6 BN Italian … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Equity Bulls Battle on Two Fronts

Posted on November 28, 2010 by

The slow improvement of the U.S. economy, reflected in weekly jobless claims, coupled with QE2 is providing an underlying bid to the equity market, which is surprising to many, given the increasingly ugly global macro picture.  On the Western Front, … Continue reading →

Posted in China, Commodities, Currency, Equities, Geopolitical, Japan, PIIGS, Rare Earth Elements, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Best Investment 2011: Default on Your Mortgage

Posted on November 27, 2010 by

It’s an absurd world.  We have incentivized people to stop paying their mortgage and stay in the house as long as possible before eviction.  The Wall Street Journal reports the average number of days since the average borrower in foreclosure … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds | Tagged , | 4 Comments

Chart of the Day: Banks to Sovereigns to Banks

Posted on November 27, 2010 by

Great chart from IMF showing feedback loop of Europe’s Sovereign Debt Crisis.  A little busy, but stick with it.

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Credit, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Run on German Safe Deposit Boxes? WTH?

Posted on November 26, 2010 by

The implosion of the Eurozone appears to be accelerating. But Germany?  Come on!  Yet Ambrose Evans-Pritchard writes the crisis in the eurozone periphery is moving to the core as credit default swaps for German, French,and Dutch bonds have blown out … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Fiscal Policy, Geopolitical, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

“Will the next fiscal crisis start in Washington?”

Posted on November 26, 2010 by

Sheila Bair, chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., writes in today’s Washington Post, Even as work continues to repair our financial infrastructure and get the economy moving again, we need urgent action to forestall the next financial crisis. I … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Fiscal Policy, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment