Monthly Archives: December 2011

Happy New Year!

Posted on December 31, 2011 by

Thank heaven we’re done with 2011! Tough year for global macro traders.   A year of bull and bear traps, ridiculous correlations,  absurd trading algorithms, and the full realization the global economy has entered the second phase of the financial crisis … Continue reading →

Posted in Uncategorized | 1 Comment

Are the Markets Driving European Politics?

Posted on December 29, 2011 by

Der Spiegel poses the question to former Deutsche Bank CEO Hilmar Kopper in an interesting interview. SPIEGEL: The markets are driving politics, leaving no doubt as to who is really in charge. Kopper: I think that’s nonsense. Why does the … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Euro, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk, Whales | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Think Equal in 2012

Posted on December 29, 2011 by

Because we have daughters. (click here if video is not observable)

Posted in Demographics, General Interest | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

HSBC China PMI Contracts for Second Successive Month

Posted on December 29, 2011 by

“While the pace of slowdown is stabilizing somewhat, weakening external demand is starting to bite. This, plus the ongoing property market corrections, adds to calls for more aggressive action on both fiscal and monetary fronts to stabilize growth and jobs, … Continue reading →

Posted in China | Tagged , | 2 Comments

The Haunting (of the Sovereign Bonds)

Posted on December 29, 2011 by

A consistent theme we have heard over and over this year is that there is no credit risk for a sovereign borrower that has an independent central bank and can resort to debt monetization.   Even Martin Fedstein in his excellent … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 5 Comments

Nonlinear Thinking: Robot Soldiers

Posted on December 28, 2011 by

Great piece from our friends at Al Jazeera.    Looks like the military is no longer going to be the “employer of last resort.”   Future veterans are going to highly trained in the cutting edge technology that will shape the … Continue reading →

Posted in Nonlinear Thinking, Technology | Tagged , | 3 Comments

Quote of the Day: The Big Think

Posted on December 28, 2011 by

“Tech companies are creating plenty of jobs for robots.” – Daniel Honan,  The Robot Hiring Boom Has Arrived

Posted in Employment, Nonlinear Thinking | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Euro Swan Dives Splashes Santa

Posted on December 28, 2011 by

This morning’s swan dive in the euro stopped the Santa rally right in its tracks. We have two questions:  1)  Has the ECB shot its wad as the lender of last resort providing massive liquidity to the banking system and … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Equities, Euro | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

The 2012 Macro Swan of the East

Posted on December 27, 2011 by

Nothing captures better the angst of the macro swan of the east than a long-term chart of the Shanghai Composite.   Our friends at The Chart Store do a great job charting anything and everything and have not disappointed on this … Continue reading →

Posted in China | Tagged , | 4 Comments

Viva Brasil! Overtakes UK in economic league table

Posted on December 27, 2011 by

Congrats to one of our favorite countries to work and play!   The land of our favorite dental floss,  beautiful women,  great food,  world class football,  the 2014 World Cup, 2016 Olympics, and, of course, our good friend,  Amenio Fraga! … Continue reading →

Posted in BRICs | Tagged , , | 2 Comments