OECD leading indicators point to diverging economic activity

The OECD reported today,

Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend continue to point to divergence between economies.

The CLIs for Japan, the United States and Russia continue to signal improvements in economic activity. However, the deceleration in these countries’ CLIs over the last four months provides tentative signs that growth may moderate in the near term.

In France and Italy the CLIs continue to point to sluggish economic activity. The CLIs for Germany, Canada, the United Kingdom and the Euro Area as a whole continue to point towards economic activity slightly below long-term trend.

The assessment for China and India has changed significantly since last month. For both countries, the CLIs point towards economic activity below long-term trend.

In Brazil the CLI continues to point towards a turning point with economic activity returning towards long-term trend but with a weaker intensity.

The OECD Development Centre’s Asian Business Cycle Indicators (ABCIs) suggest some signs of resilience for
ASEAN economies (Read more)

(click here if charts are not observable)

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2 Responses to OECD leading indicators point to diverging economic activity

  1. Reblogged this on Lighthouse Securities and commented:
    This is a simple yet elegant look at how things are shaping up in the months and year ahead for the globes economies. I have been assiduously following the CLI’s since the late 1990’s.

  2. Andrew says:

    The slight improvements over the past couple of years are due mainly to the easing of monetary policies around the world (low rates, money printing, LTRO, QE, BS,etc.), therefore the impact of that in contrast to a real recovery is very different, as OECD commented on them being ‘below long-term trend.’

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