Presidential Polls and Prediction Markets

Great piece by PBS NewsHour  on divining the polls and predicting the next POTUS.   Ray Fair’s economic model is fascinating.

BTW,  Romney’s probability of becoming the next POTUS  has doubled in the past few weeks at Intrade.  The VEEP debate has not stopped the momentum as he has picked up another 3 points since Thursday.

With such a close presidential race, many would like to look to pollsters and their political crystal balls for predictions. But what stats are the most reliable and accurate for predicting what will happen come Election Day? Paul Solman examines how polls and election markets parse data to come up with a winner.

(click here if chart and video are not observable)

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