After returning to our desks last week, we posted,
…been out (golf trip) and totally unplugged for the past few days and come back to yesterday’s major reversal in Apple (see chart) and a big flip in the polls in favor of Governor Romney. Equities are selling off and approaching short term trend support with the Nasdaq already breaking its 50-day moving average…
We are also watching the presidential polls carefully as markets may begin to internalize the momentum moving in favor of Romney, which could spark a decent rally into the election.
The trend support was tested and held and whatta’ you know Governor Romney is beginning to pull ahead in the polls. Here’s today’s Gallup tracking poll,
October 16, 2012
Romney 50%, Obama 46% Among Likely VotersObama down sharply among men, college grads, and Southern voters vs. 2008
by Lydia Saad
PRINCETON, NJ — Half of likely voters now prefer Mitt Romney for president and 46% back President Barack Obama in Gallup interviewing through Monday.
No political statement here. We just think the equity market ramps hard into a Romney victory. After all, to paraphrase Keynes, it’s not who we think is the best looking candidate is in this beauty contest, we’re just trying to anticipate what average opinion expects the average opinion thinks of both candidates. Got it?
We also recognize the margin of error in the polling data and it may just be statistical noise. We do believe the enthusiasm levels are lower in the Obama camp, however, and the polls may be over estimating the President’s support.
On the other hand, equities could also be rallying on the prospect the S.F. Giants win the National League pennant, no? Prove us wrong.
(click here if charts are not observable)
