U.S. stocks are not the only market experiencing volatility these days. Take a look at the presidential contract over at Intrade.
We logged on tonight and found the President’s probability of winning the election had fallen to almost 51 percent at around 10 PM eastern time tonight. This is way down from around 63 percent last night during the the debate. It’s now back at around 54 percent.
We also noticed that G0vernor Romney leads in the electoral college 261-249 with only Ohio and Wisconsin as toss ups. Wait, now its 261-259 (270 to win presidency) as Wisconsin has just moved into the President’s column (see time stamps on charts below).
We also noticed that Romney had moved to over a 50 probability of winning Ohio. Bells go off. Arbitrage opportunity. Buy Romney to win, sell the contract that has him winning Ohio. We instantly go back to the contract and both Obama and Romney are now under 50 percent probability of winning.
That’s volatility, folks. But the trend is clear, no?
One last question that bothers us. It appears to us that about $20 million per day trades for each of the presidential contracts. How much do you think each campaign’s daily spend is on T.V. ads the battleground states? Just askin’.
(click here if charts are not observable)