Category Archives: Budget Deficit

Flight to Quality Funding of the U.S. Budget Deficit

Posted on December 13, 2011 by

As we suspected in our last update in September, the flight to quality funding of the U.S. budget deficit would replace the end of QE2 and almost 100 percent indirect financing of the deficit by the Federal Reserve.  Looking at … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Fiscal Policy | Tagged , | 1 Comment

The Consequences of Euro Debt Monetization

Posted on November 17, 2011 by

As the pressure on ECB grows to step up its “bid of last resort” for European sovereign bonds, the folks over at Zero Hedge ask the very important question what are consequences if the ‘zone  resorts to massive debt monetization?    … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Dollar, Euro, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 5 Comments

The Biggest Bubble in History?

Posted on November 14, 2011 by

We are baffled by the analysis of the analyst community, some, of which, are not so analytical.  They say that  Europe’s fundamental problem is that it  has a central bank which is unwilling to monetize sizeable debt maturities which bondholders … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, BRICs, Budget Deficit, Commodities, Credit, Currency, Euro, Monetary Policy, PIIGS, Sovereign Risk, State and Local Government | Tagged , , , , , , , | 6 Comments

Ominous

Posted on November 14, 2011 by

This shouldn’t be happening after this weekend’s  good political news.  The spread widening is weighing on France who will be on the hook for their banks who are heavily exposed to European sovereigns.  Where are you ECB?          (click here … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Budget Deficit, Charts, Euro, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

The ECB Show

Posted on November 9, 2011 by

It all comes down to this.  Will the ECB provide the exit bid for those fleeing Italian bonds and, more importantly, will their action instill enough confidence to allow Italy to roll over existing maturities?  If it doesn’t bring back … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Budget Deficit, Euro, PIIGS, Politics, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Why the sovereign debt crisis is only in the third inning

Posted on November 1, 2011 by

And the heavy hitters have yet to be tested.  Click table to enlarge. (click here if table is not observable)

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Budget Deficit, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

One Factor Behind the High U.S. Unemployment Rate

Posted on November 1, 2011 by

The following chart is the most recent sixty-five-nation Program for International Student Assessment (PISA), which shows the United States came in 15th in reading, 23rd in math and 31st in science.  This is one of the factors driving the high … Continue reading →

Posted in Budget Deficit, Economics, Employment | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Euro Fracture: “Matters are turning serious” in Italy

Posted on October 31, 2011 by

It you’re looking for some Euro gloom, go no further than Ambrose Evans-Pritchard’s latest, Italy, Europe, and Red Brigade terror.   He writes that Italy risks an outbreak of terrorism if the labor market reform is rushed as the EU … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Budget Deficit, Euro, Fiscal Policy, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Ray Dalio on Charlie Rose

Posted on October 23, 2011 by

A must see interview for anyone interested in global macro with Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund.   His key points: There are three big themes driving the global economy: 1)  deleveraging; 2)  monetary and fiscal policymakers … Continue reading →

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Rivets Starting to Pop in Greece

Posted on October 20, 2011 by

The FT reports, Greece should get its next €8bn in international aid, but its economic outlook is deteriorating so rapidly that a second bail-out plan agreed just three months ago is no longer adequate to keep Athens afloat, international lenders … Continue reading →

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