Category Archives: Credit

Monitoring the Armageddon Trade – Day 2

Posted on July 26, 2011 by

Still no panic, but lower.  The dollar took the biggest beating and looks ready to take out its May lows.  Only T-Bonds of the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse moved contrary to what we call the Armageddon trade, where gold … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Credit, Currency, Dollar, Equities, Fiscal Policy, Gold | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

Chart of the Day: Dr. Copper Falls Through the Ice

Posted on May 5, 2011 by

Dr. Copper broke through its support at 4.10 and is below 4.00 for the first time since early December.   Lots of flakes in this chart as head and shoulder patterns are ubiquitous.   Copper is a very crowded trade and some … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Commodities, Credit, Currency, Dollar, Monetary Policy | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

Charts of the Day: Asian Credit Bubble?

Posted on May 3, 2011 by

Great chart from Deustche Bank of Asian home prices indexed to Jan’07.   It’s becoming increasingly clear, at least to us, that a big part of Asia is in massive credit/asset bubble and as monetary tightening plays out their day of … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, China, Commodities, Credit, Crude Oil, Currency | Tagged , | Leave a comment

10 Questions for Chairman Bernanke

Posted on April 26, 2011 by

If we were attending the Fed’s historic press conference tomorrow,  here are the ten questions we would ask Chairman Bernanke: 1)  Do you think the new monetary policy tool of the Federal Reserve of paying interest on reserves (IOR) is … Continue reading →

Posted in Budget Deficit, Commodities, Credit, Crude Oil, Currency, Food Prices, Gold, Monetary Policy, Policy | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

Chart of the Day: Fed Ownership of the Yield Curve

Posted on April 11, 2011 by

We’ve updated our chart illustrating the Fed ownership of the U.S. yield curve.   We’ve also included the percentage of total maturities the Fed owns in each year from the April 2011 data and December 2010 data.   Most of POMO buying … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, Budget Deficit, Chart of the Day, Commodities, Credit, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

U.S. Macro in Two Simple Charts

Posted on March 11, 2011 by

To understand the U.S. economy go no further than the following two charts.  In 2009 and 2010, public sector borrowing was more than 100 percent of total net domestic credit flows.  Federal government borrowing was 93 percent of these flows.   … Continue reading →

Posted in Credit, Economics, Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, Policy, Sovereign Debt, State and Local Government | 3 Comments

Trichet Says Bond “Haircuts” Would Reward Short Sellers

Posted on February 8, 2011 by

A few week ago ECB President, Jean Claude Trichet, torched the short sellers of the Euro and he is now warning Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) that demanding “haircuts” from bondholders in Greece and Ireland would reward the short … Continue reading →

Posted in Credit, Economics, Euro, Monetary Policy, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Monetarism Redefined: Crude, Fine Wine & Gold

Posted on January 20, 2011 by

“Inflation is Always and Everywhere a Monetary Phenomenon” – Milton Freidman Monetarism as a theory, which states that the variation in the money supply has major influences on national output in the short run and the price level over longer … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, BRICs, Budget Deficit, Charts, China, Commodities, Credit, Crude Oil, Currency, Economics, Monetary Policy | Tagged , , , | 3 Comments

JP Morgan’s Revenues: Tables & Charts

Posted on January 14, 2011 by

Let’s start with the caveat we’re not stock analysts and the sheer size of JP Morgan’s balance sheet and the dynamic use of reserves makes it difficult to get a true picture of what’s really going on.   But it’s tough … Continue reading →

Posted in Credit, Earnings, Economics, Equities | Tagged | Leave a comment

Risk 2011: Fate of Commodities in China’s Hands

Posted on January 4, 2011 by

We begin our analysis with a little perspective on how we view the crisis.   The pre-crisis global aggregate demand was primarily driven by an over leveraged U.S. consumer, who was spending “fake wealth” created by a housing bubble financed by … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Commodities, Credit, Crude Oil, Equities, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment