Category Archives: Inflation/Deflation

The Ultimate Relative Price Change

Posted on December 23, 2012 by

This chart from Mark Perry goes a long way in capturing the decline in purchasing power of many Americans as the population ages (and gets heavier).   We suspect the relative price shift is not fully captured in the Consumer Price … Continue reading →

Posted in Inflation/Deflation, Innovation | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

QE3 Will Complicate Global Food Crisis

Posted on September 13, 2012 by

There is no doubt in our minds that some of the QE3 liquidity will leak into agricultural commodities.  In addition, a portfolio reallocation will take place as investors look to protect their purchasing power through buying finite “things.” This will … Continue reading →

Posted in Commodities, Demographics, Geopolitical, Inflation/Deflation, Monetary Policy, Video | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Parabolic Moves and Gold

Posted on July 22, 2012 by

The Fed finds itself extremely unlucky once again as it talks up quantitative easing while food prices, mainly wheat and corn,  are making a parabolic and historic move as crops suffer from extreme drought.   You can’t prove causation with … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Commodities, Gold, Inflation/Deflation | Tagged , , , , , | 1 Comment

China Inflation at 29-month Low

Posted on July 8, 2012 by

Bloomberg reports, China’s consumer-price inflation eased to a 29-month low in June, giving Premier Wen Jiabao more room to relax economic policies after the second interest-rate cut in a month. The consumer price index rose 2.2 percent from a year … Continue reading →

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Where The Inflating Things Are

Posted on June 18, 2012 by

On the eve of the Fed’s FOMC two-day meeting we thought this chart illustrating what is inflating in the U.S. consumer basket very relevant.   Don’t see much deflation x/ energy and the core CPI (x/ food and energy) remains stuck … Continue reading →

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Gold In Full Blown QE Mode

Posted on June 6, 2012 by

Gold is a weird cat with multiple personalities and more than nine lives.  The yellow metal is up almost $100 since last Friday’s weak U.S. employment report. At any given time period  gold will assume any one of its multiple … Continue reading →

Posted in China, Gold, Inflation/Deflation, Monetary Policy | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Inflation Convergence and Real Earnings

Posted on April 16, 2012 by

The BLS chart clearly illustrates the convergence of core (x/ food and energy) inflation and all items.   Core inflation is up 2.3 percent y/y, which is a little hot given its recent history.  Here’s the BLS commentary, The index … Continue reading →

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What’s Driving U.S. Inflation?

Posted on March 19, 2012 by

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in the U.S. increased 2.9 percent in February before seasonal adjustment.  These BLS charts and table illustrate what is driving the increase. (click here is charts and table are not observable)

Posted in Economics, Inflation/Deflation | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Chart Trioka

Posted on March 1, 2012 by

We’re keeping these three charts on our radar over the next year. With a heavily spiked punch bowl,  we suspect U.S. monetary policymakers will be a little nervous if they start to see bank credit accelerate and a rapid expansion … Continue reading →

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What’s Inflating in the U.S. Consumer Basket

Posted on February 21, 2012 by

Note all components are above the 10-year Treasury yield.    That’s some financial repression! (click here if chart is not observable)

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