Category Archives: Inflation/Deflation

Quote of the Day

The Internet is the most deflationary invention of all time  – Todd Harrison,  Minyanville 

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The Ultimate Relative Price Change

This chart from Mark Perry goes a long way in capturing the decline in purchasing power of many Americans as the population ages (and gets heavier).   We suspect the relative price shift is not fully captured in the Consumer Price … Continue reading

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QE3 Will Complicate Global Food Crisis

There is no doubt in our minds that some of the QE3 liquidity will leak into agricultural commodities.  In addition, a portfolio reallocation will take place as investors look to protect their purchasing power through buying finite “things.” This will … Continue reading

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Parabolic Moves and Gold

The Fed finds itself extremely unlucky once again as it talks up quantitative easing while food prices, mainly wheat and corn,  are making a parabolic and historic move as crops suffer from extreme drought.   You can’t prove causation with … Continue reading

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China Inflation at 29-month Low

Bloomberg reports, China’s consumer-price inflation eased to a 29-month low in June, giving Premier Wen Jiabao more room to relax economic policies after the second interest-rate cut in a month. The consumer price index rose 2.2 percent from a year … Continue reading

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Where The Inflating Things Are

On the eve of the Fed’s FOMC two-day meeting we thought this chart illustrating what is inflating in the U.S. consumer basket very relevant.   Don’t see much deflation x/ energy and the core CPI (x/ food and energy) remains stuck … Continue reading

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Gold In Full Blown QE Mode

Gold is a weird cat with multiple personalities and more than nine lives.  The yellow metal is up almost $100 since last Friday’s weak U.S. employment report. At any given time period  gold will assume any one of its multiple … Continue reading

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Inflation Convergence and Real Earnings

The BLS chart clearly illustrates the convergence of core (x/ food and energy) inflation and all items.   Core inflation is up 2.3 percent y/y, which is a little hot given its recent history.  Here’s the BLS commentary, The index … Continue reading

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What’s Driving U.S. Inflation?

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in the U.S. increased 2.9 percent in February before seasonal adjustment.  These BLS charts and table illustrate what is driving the increase. (click here is charts and table are not observable)

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Chart Trioka

We’re keeping these three charts on our radar over the next year. With a heavily spiked punch bowl,  we suspect U.S. monetary policymakers will be a little nervous if they start to see bank credit accelerate and a rapid expansion … Continue reading

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