Category Archives: Japan

The Massive Move in Won/Yen Cross

Posted on December 16, 2012 by

Add currency wars to Asia’s geopolitical tensions next year as a result of the Abe landslide. The Korean won/yen cross has strengthened a stunning 19.8 percent since June 4th.  That’s a big move in relative prices and competitiveness between the … Continue reading →

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Abe Landslide — Black Swan 2013?

Posted on December 16, 2012 by

Shinzo Abe may put together a government with a super majority in lower house of the Japanese Diet.   Sounds like a mandate to us. Abe has been promoting a massive quantitative easing by the Bank of Japan and public works … Continue reading →

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Japan’s Tankan Survey Tanks to 3-year Low

Posted on December 13, 2012 by

Japan’s Tankan index measuring business confidence fell to a 3-year low.   Here’s Bloomberg, Big Japanese manufacturers are the most pessimistic in almost three years after a diplomatic dispute with China and Europe’s austerity measures dragged exports to a fifth monthly … Continue reading →

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How the mighty have fallen

Posted on November 3, 2012 by

Peak Japan seems just like yesterday. We remember the days, or daze, working as grad student interns in the U.S. G when all govie economists were studying Theory Z, a Japanese management style and all the rage in business schools … Continue reading →

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Japan PMI falls to 46.9, 18-month low

Posted on October 30, 2012 by

Markit’s press release on Japan’s October manufacturing PMI, Commenting on the Japanese Manufacturing PMI survey data, Paul Smith, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the report said: “The fall back in the headline PMI to an 18-month low during … Continue reading →

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Japan’s September Exports Down 10.3% Y/Y

Posted on October 22, 2012 by

Great data from Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MOF) showing the sharp drop in exports to each of the country’s major trading partners. TOKYO — Japan’s trade deficit widened in September as exports plunged 10.3 percent from a year earlier, weighed … Continue reading →

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Black Swan Watch: Japan could pull out of China

Posted on September 25, 2012 by

This could be big and is not priced.  Keep it on your radar. (click here if video is not observable)

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Economist Cover: War Over These?

Posted on September 20, 2012 by

The new cover story of the Economist.  Gulp! Low probability, high impact event and very unlikely but keep it on your radar. …Amid heated rhetoric on both sides, one Chinese newspaper has helpfully suggested skipping the pointless diplomacy and moving … Continue reading →

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Debt of Honor in the East & South China Seas

Posted on September 19, 2012 by

We can’t  help but think the Chinese are reading Tom Clancy’s 1994 thriller, Debt of Honor, as we watch their latest tiff with Japan unfold.  Recall China suspended its exports of rare earths to Japan in September 2010 over a similar … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Geopolitical, Japan | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

A Microcosm of Japan’s Tough Future?

Posted on September 8, 2012 by

Sorry to ruin your weekend with more dismal science,  but we thought this video is a reflection of the potential problems Japan is now facing.   If the city of Yubari is, indeed,  a glimpse of future Japan,  this may be … Continue reading →

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