Category Archives: News

Did the Russell 2000 predict the better than expected ADP?

Posted on January 5, 2011 by

Did you notice the better than expected ADP employment report this morning.  It was the largest monthly jump ever in this report, with most of the jobs created in small and medium sized businesses? Recall we wrote on January 3rd … Continue reading →

Posted in Budget Deficit, Currency, Employment, Fiscal Policy, Muni Bonds, News, Policy, Politics | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

California Creamin’ (the muni market)

Posted on November 13, 2010 by

You think today was ugly in the equity market take a look at what is happening with, MUB,  the Municipal Bond EFT (see chart below).   The California Legislative Analyst’s Office released their state fiscal outlook on November 10th and projects … Continue reading →

Posted in Bonds, News, PIIGS | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

No Luck Be A Lady and The (Bad) Luck of the Irish

Posted on November 12, 2010 by

The Irish are caught in the middle of panicky capital flows and the loose rhetoric of European leaders.   PM Brian Cowen tried to calm markets after comments from German Chancellor Angela Merkel suggested that not all national debt should be … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, News, PIIGS, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Inside Job

Posted on November 8, 2010 by
Posted in Equities, Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, News, Policy, Politics | Tagged | 1 Comment

Chart of the Day: Sovereign Debt and Capital Flight

Posted on November 8, 2010 by

We thought this to be a very informative chart, which shows the percentage of a country’s sovereign debt held by domestic and foreign residents.   In general, the more a country’s debt is held by foreigners the higher the risk of … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Commodities, Credit, Currency, Fiscal Policy, News, Policy, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

What the Fed did and why – Ben Bernanke

Posted on November 3, 2010 by

Ben Bernanke published an Op/Ed piece in today’s Washington Post explaining the FOMC’s action.  Here are the money quotes, The FOMC decided this week that, with unemployment high and inflation very low, further support to the economy is needed. With … Continue reading →

Posted in Equities, Monetary Policy, News, Policy, Politics | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

Gold and the QE War?

Posted on October 31, 2010 by

This is going to an interesting week for gold.  We expect some currency fireworks as the Bank of Japan draws a line in the sand for the Yen around the 80 level.  Will the Japanese respond to QE2 with more … Continue reading →

Posted in Currency, Gold, Monetary Policy, News, Policy | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Rousseff Promises Continuity of Brazil’s Economic Policy

Posted on October 31, 2010 by

With almost all the votes counted, Dilma Rousseff was elected Brazil’s first female president, with 56% of the votes versus 44% for her opponent, Jose Serra of the Brazilian Social Democrat Party.    The Miami Herald reports, Dilma Rousseff, a former … Continue reading →

Posted in BRICs, Equities, News, Politics | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

The Yoke is Hard and the Debt Burden is Heavy

Posted on October 30, 2010 by

We found this table from Brookings very interesting.  The net public debt per worker of the Advanced Economies in the G20 has increased from US$33K in 2007 t0 US$50.2 in 2010, an increase of 50 percent and projected to grow … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, BRICs, China, Fiscal Policy, News, Policy, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Did the Chinese Drop a Rare Earth Trade Bomb?

Posted on October 20, 2010 by

Call us paranoid, but what would you conclude from the following headlines: Oct. 15:  U.S. launches trade investigation into China’s green tech sector – Xinhua Oct 19:  China to limit exports of ‘rare earth’ minerals vital to energy tech – … Continue reading →

Posted in Black Swan Watch, BRICs, China, Currency, News, Policy, Politics, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , | 1 Comment