The Market Radar

We anticipate monitor and comment on market-moving global economic and geopolitical issues.  No dark side brooding, no wanting the world to end, no political rants.  Traders, investors, policymakers, or market observers can’t afford to ignore us.

 

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Song For The Week: Balls To The Wall

I won’t back down
Hey Nancy, balls to the Wall, no easy way out
I won’t back down
Hey Rush I will stand my ground
And I won’t back down

 

SFTW – Song for the Week

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How Democrats Should Counter Trump

The Dems need to counter Trump.

It’s a no-brainer.   They can draw it up with a crayon.

  1. Open the government (a deal breaker)
  2. $2 billion for border security
  3. Complete resolution of DACA, including a path to citizenship

The president can’t win politically but the above provides Trump with a way out of the corner he has painted himself into.  Intense negotiations begin on  #2 and #3 provided the government opens on Monday.

Not A Normal Negotiator

The “best dealmaker of all-time” has committed almost every conceivable error of negotiating during the shutdown.   See Harvard Law’s,  10 Hard-Bargaining Tactics to Watch Out for in a Negotiation.

The Speaker needs to realize she is dealing with a non-normal opponent, one who lacks empathy and doesn’t seem to care about blowing up the country.  She has to allow for a face-saving out in which he can boast about a “win” on Fox and Friends.  Who really cares as 70 percent of the country know it is all bull shit anyway.  The other 30 percent are growing smaller by the day.

Learn From JFK 

jkf_niki

 

Chuck and Nancy can learn from President Kennedy during the “thirteen days” in October 1962.  Put something on the table that allows Rush and Ann to get off the president’s back.

After sizing up Khrushchev after his meeting a year earlier,  JFK knew he had to appease the Soviet hardliners to give Khrushchev some room to maneuver — even though it would come at a political cost —  by removing the U.S. Jupiter missiles from Turkey,  the country’s first nuclear-tipped, medium-range ballistic missiles — or risk nuclear war.

Because the alternative was a nuclear holocaust. Kennedy believed and said so to those he trusted that nuclear weapons, if contained in a country’s arsenal, would eventually be used. And he had first-hand reason to believe that Khrushchev was just the man to pull the trigger. At their meeting in Vienna the prior year this has been made stunningly clear. “I talked about how a nuclear exchange would kill seventy million people in ten minutes,” he later told Time’s Hugh Sidey, “and he just looked at me as if to say, ‘So what?’ My impression was that he just didn’t give a damn if it came to that.”

And that’s why he was willing to offer  a trade. If the Russians removed their missiles from Cuba, Kennedy told Krushchev that he would remove American missiles stationed in Turkey. Kennedy’s calculation paid off. Khrushchev accepted the trade. 

…  This is the lesson of the Cuban Missile Crisis that gets overlooked but should be the key to all future confrontations with a dangerous enemy: Always leave the other side a way out. Otherwise, they will only have a way in.  – The New Repulbic

The new Democratic House along with the majority of the country don’t like that “F$@ken Wall” just as much as the former president of Mexico, Vincente Fox.

Tabling the above proposal, however, or something similar puts the onus back on the White House to get the government open, which is the country’s most pressing issue.

If the president rejects the proposal, his poll ratings drop another five points.

If the Dems don’t counter, they lose the high ground.   Just Do It.

 

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Sector ETF Performance – January 18

etf_detf_w

etf_m

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Global Risk Monitor – January 18

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La Grande Entrée!

Go Boogie!  The best starting five in the history of the NBA is now in action!

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More, please!

We all need to get ourselves back to the Garden this place…  The kindness and innocence of a little child.

 

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Ten Good Weekend Reads

 

patents

  • Why do we bother with stock market forecasts?  – Irish Times
  • The Left’s Delusions About Mexico’s New President – New Republic
  • Economists reconsider how much governments can borrow – Economist
  • Public Debt Through The Ages – Barry Eichengreen – IMF
  • ‘Modern Monetary Theory’ Is a Joke That’s Not Funny – Bloomberg
  • Don’t Be So Sure Hyperinflation Can’t Hit the U.S. – Bloomberg
  • Don’t kid yourself, the Federal Reserve isn’t done with interest-rate increases – MarketWatch

 

words per fed statement

  • Global policy uncertainty at record levels, Deutsche Bank says – FT

policy uncertainty

  • 5 puzzles in the international economy – Brookings
  • Goldman Says Rich People Will Drag Down the U.S. Economy by Spending Less – Bloomberg

Bonus

  • The Things John Bogle Taught Us: Humility, Ethics and Simplicity – NY Times
  • Bridgewater’s New Brain: A Millennial Woman Is Blazing To The Top Of The World’s Largest Hedge Fund  – Forbes
  • The Investment Philosophy of Paul Tudor Jones – gurufocus
  • US report says rapidly modernizing Chinese military has set sights on Taiwan – CNN
  • Barry Bonds getting support from early ballots to Baseball Hall of Fame – NBC
  • GOLF’s 2017-18 ranking of the Top 100 Courses in the U.S – Golf.com
  • The Loneliest Generation: Americans, More Than Ever, Are Aging Alone – WSJ
  • Orwell v Huxley: whose dystopia are we living in today? – FT
  • Time for America to embrace the class struggle FT
  • A majority of Americans support raising the top tax rate to 70 percent – The Hill
  • What If Karl Marx Was Right, Mostly? – Econintersect.com

BBC Masters of Money Karl Marx

 

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TOTD: Quantum Mechanics Of Life

TOTD – Tweet of the Day

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This Day In Financial History – Jan 18

From the Great Jason Zweig

January 18:

2000: Its impossible to pay too much for a good stock, a leading investor tells The Wall Street Journal with a straight face. Its a new world order, says Robert Froelich, vice chairman and chief investment strategist at Kemper Funds. He says investors should own Cisco Systems, Motorola and Intel at any price and not worry about the valuation. We see people discard all the right companies with all the right people with the right vision because their stock price is too high — thats the worst mistake an investor can make. The people who have missed the bull market are the people who are on the sidelines trying to figure out how to value these things as opposed to getting into the market. Theyre also the people who miss the destruction of overvalued stocks that begins just weeks after Froelichs remarks.

The Wall Street Journal, January 18, 2000, p. C1.

 

1956: After more than a half-century as a private company, the Ford Motor Co. goes public when the Ford Foundation sells 10.2 million shares at $64.50. The largest IPO then on record, the offering puts 22% of Henry Ford’s company into public hands.

Peter Wyckoff, Wall Street and the Stock Markets (Chilton Book Co., Philadelphia, 1972), p. 103; http://www.ford.com/en/heritage/centennial/default.htm

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What makes elite athletes thrive or dive under pressure? | The Economist

Psychology is an increasingly important part of elite sport. Winning at the highest levels can depend as much on peak-fitness of the mind as the body.

Click here to subscribe to The Economist on YouTube: https://econ.st/2xvTKdy

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