The Market Radar

We anticipate, monitor, and comment on market moving global economic and geopolitical issues.  No dark side brooding, no wanting the world to end, no political rants.  Traders, investors, policymakers, or market observers can’t  afford to ignore us.

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Hardest Working Countries – Statista

Interesting stuff from Statista.  Should blow away the priors of the hoi polloi, especially in the EU.

Across the globe, people are firmly back in the working groove after all the fun, relaxation and overindulgence of the holiday season. This year, some workers are going to have a far longer shift than others. According to the OECD, Mexicans work the most hours out of any country with 2,246 on average. That’s 467 more than an average American worker and for less than a fifth of the pay.

In recent years, the South Korean government has attempted to reduce the long working hours in the country but its workers are still averaging 2,113 hours annually. Greek workers were sometimes labeled as over-paid, lazy and eager to retire early after the financial crisis struck but those accusations were certainly unfounded. People in Greece work the most hours of any European country with 2,042 every year on average.

U.S. workers put in a 1,779 hour shift every year while across the border in Canada, the annual total adds up to 1,691. French workers get a much better deal with 1,482 hours while in Germany, the total only comes to 1,371. – Statista 


Hours per Day_Jan16

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QOTD: Dr. King

The ultimate tragedy is not the oppression and cruelty by the bad people but the silence over that by the good people.  – Martin Luther King, Jr


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Week In Review – Jan 12

Frothy the Snowman, was a jolly, happy soul…. Thumpety, thump, thump, thumpety thump, thump, look at Frothy go!”

Momentum is a very powerful thang, especially when powered by a theme of synchronized global expansion and  “blockbuster” retail money flows into stocks.   No worries about extreme valuations in MoMo markets, however.

Note to self:  Will not chase, will not short until market tells us to.

Of course, global asset markets are in a huge bubble.  Let the trend play out and let markets break before getting shorty.

Could go until beginning of summer – maybe – but trying to pick exact tops and time corrections are a mug’s game.  Why our preference is for trend based models.

– Euro periphery tightening on spec ECB to issue EURO bond to extract from QE;
– Yield seekers going all-in in Brazil;
– German 10-year approaches key resistance at 60-ish bps as ‘zone economy rips;

– Dollar seems to have caught Trump flu.  Usually gets sneezy  squeezy down here;
– Dollar/yen weak on speculation BoJ to start tapering; Continue reading

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Lionel Messi’s 100-Million-Euro Contract – Spiegel

Betcha Messi glad he didn’t quit now!

Lionel Messi’s new contracts with FC Barcelona exceed all limits. Two contracts that Messi signed with FC Barcelona on June 30, 2017 — an employment contract and one covering his marketing rights — show that the Argentinian has become the first professional football player ever who will earn more than 100 million euros a season.

The revelations, which come from documents obtained from the Football Leaks whistleblower platform, are covered in the latest issue of DER SPIEGEL. The documents show that Messi is to receive an annual fixed salary of 71,053,846 euros through the end of the 2020/21 season. He is also to get a one-time bonus of 63.5 million as well as a “loyalty bonus” of 70 million euros. On top of that come performance bonuses. If the team wins the Champions League, for example, Messi would receive an additional 12,057,513 euros.  – Spiegel



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Sector ETF Performance – January 12




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Global Risk Monitor – January 12



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Merkel secures ‘grand coalition’ breakthrough – FT

The German chancellor’s conservative bloc and left-of-centre rivals the Social Democrats have achieved a breakthrough in exploratory talks on forming a new ‘grand coalition’

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World’s Fastest Growing Economies In 2018

We have updated with the latest 2018 and 2019-20 average annual forecasts and ranked the world’s country 2018 GDP forecasts in our ginormous table below. The data are from the October 2017 IMF’s World Economic Outlook. The forecasts probably underestimate world growth, but we believe the ordinal ranking is fairly accurate.

Let’s begin by first checking out the G20 data.

.GDP Growth_G20_WEO

GDP Growth_World_WEO


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Week In Review – Jan 5


What a first week to start the year.   Frothy the Snowman refuses to melt!

Emerging markets still all the rage.

No supply, my friends.  Global markets have gone parabolic.

– Greece bond yields hit 12-year low as the post-bailout era beckons;
– Indonesia continues to attract yield seekers;
– Mexico 10-year yields 20 bps lower. Talk of 10-year dollar bond at 160 bps.
– The dash for trash continues with CCC in over 50 bps on the week. B in 20 bps ;
– DM bond yields slightly higher.  Fears of overheating starting to creep into markets.

– Dollar index relatively flat;
– EM currencies strong as capital flows continue to fly into the sector.

– EM stocks continue to melt-up;
– Japan making 26 year highs on growth surprise.  Nikkei still 40 below 1989 high.



Other Risk Indicators
– U.S. tech still rocking the free world;
– U.S. semiconductor ETF up another 5 percent after stellar 2017.  Pass the A.I. chips, bro;
— VIX collapses again.  Approaching new all-time lows.

– Iron ore higher probably due to upward revisions to China growth;
– Gold continues to rally as Bitcoin wobbles;
– Nattie gave back some of last week’s 10 percent gain even as America freezes.



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Merkel launches new round of coalition talks – EuroNews

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