We don’t know.
What we do know: 1) May has bad seasonals as illustrated in the chart by our good friends at the Chart Store; 2) Apple, the leader of 2012, is trading like dog dirt after the huge pop after earnings last week; 3) Merkozy will die (most likely) after Nicolas is defeated in the France’s Presidential election on Sunday, increasing market uncertainty; 4) The Greeks may, though not likely, elect to eject in their elections, which is also this Sunday; 5) U.S. regional PMIs are slowing; and 6) U.S. unemployment claims have been disappointing.
Again, we don’t know the future and will change our minds when the facts change, but looks like we’re setting up for some choppy action into the summer. We get ground up in the chop and try to stay out. Good luck out there.
(click here if charts are not observable)