So far, at the close of 2016, the Trump S&P500 is outperforming the Reagan S&P500 by 0.38 percent, 38 days after the close of their respective election days. The Trump bump has been a relatively steady climb before rolling over last week whereas a much more volatile S&P 40 days after the Reagan election.
Note also the Reagan bull market really didn’t begin until a year and a half into his Administration. The S&P500 continued to slide after his inauguration as the economy was in the throes of a deep recession. Monetary policy began to ease — see chart below where Fed Funds rate fell over 1,ooo bps from July 1981 to August 1982 * — and the stock market finally bottomed toward the end of the recession in the fall of 1982.
The Reagan-Trump Analog is completely useless, in our opinion, as the relative macroeconomic initial conditions at the advent of their two Presidencies are entirely different. Nevertheless, a fun tracking exercise and we do expect a little more give back in the S&P500 in the next month. We don’t expect the almost 30 percent high-to-low give back in the first year and half of the new Administration.
President Trump will inherit and entirely different economy than President Reagan. Stay tuned.
* Fed funds was not a target variable at the time, but does reflect monetary conditions.