French Oat-German Bund 10-year Spread

The Oat-Bund 10-year spread came in almost 20 bps after last Sunday’s first round of the French presidential election.   The Euro strengthened v. the dollar about 1 1/2 percent and was up about 2.3 percent for the month of April.

We expect Macron to win easily next week — unless some Black Swan event/revelation this week, which, of course, is unpredictable — and European markets to take off into the rest of the year.   This should also help overall risk markets to rally.  Irrespective of overvaluation.

The latest OpinionWay/PresiTrack poll predicts Mr Macron will win 60 per cent of the vote on Sunday May 7 after a slight dip in his numbers over the past few days.

His rival whose figures have consistently sat in the 34 to 40 per cent range, is predicted to come in second place.

Mr Macron saw a sharp rise in his poll figures at the start of this week on Monday when he jumped from 46 per cent to 81 per cent in the number of people who believe he will win. 

However in stark contrast, only 56 per cent of the questioned voters would like to see him win the election.  –  Sunday Express

Oat-Bund Yield Spread

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