- Big outperformance by local emerging markets and Euro periphery in first half.
- Last week was pivotal as some bonds gave back almost entire year due to ECB hawkishness.
- Watch this space. More big moves here will determine asset trading for summer and set up big correction in the fall, in our opinion.
- Surprise weakness in dollar, mainly due to stalling of Trump agenda.
- We expect a big dollar rally in second half as we move closer to tax reform. All bets off if Trump fails.
- Big outperforrmance in emerging markets. We expect this to continue. Especially like India.
- If bond markets stablize in Europe, which we expect moves to become more muted, but still expect higher interest rates, Euro stocks should outperform U.S.
- Russia looking cheap as crude oil stablizes. Watch Trump/Putin meeting next week.
- High beta tech big outperformance. Expecting a rotation into laggards, such as financials and energy.
- Crude oil collapse soured commodity index. Natural gas gave back some of last year’s 50 percent gain.
- Lumber has been a leading indicator of economy over past history although some of move can be attributed to duties imposed on Canadian lumber.
- Copper had strong bookends. Up over 10 percent in January, weak during intervenng months and finished strong with over 4 percent gain in June.
- Looks like Iron Ore has bottomed.
- Gold going to be a tough trade in a rising rate and QT world unless all hell breaks lose.
- We expect markets to grind around with a bit more volatility as central banks move away from QE and toward quantitative tightening (QT).
- Preparing for a choppy summer with lots of sector and stock rotation with a slight bias to upside in risk markets.
- Expecting algos and trading ‘bots to continue to play their games, setting bull and bear traps, shaking the trees, and, you know, your basic market manipulaton. Bastards!
- Looking for full blown correction in the fall.
- WE KNOW NOTHING ABOUT WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS. JUST OUR CALCULATED GUESS.