Week In Review – Jan 12

Frothy the Snowman, was a jolly, happy soul…. Thumpety, thump, thump, thumpety thump, thump, look at Frothy go!”

Momentum is a very powerful thang, especially when powered by a theme of synchronized global expansion and  “blockbuster” retail money flows into stocks.   No worries about extreme valuations in MoMo markets, however.

Note to self:  Will not chase, will not short until market tells us to.

Of course, global asset markets are in a huge bubble.  Let the trend play out and let markets break before getting shorty.

Could go until beginning of summer – maybe – but trying to pick exact tops and time corrections are a mug’s game.  Why our preference is for trend based models.

Fixed-income
– Euro periphery tightening on spec ECB to issue EURO bond to extract from QE;
– Yield seekers going all-in in Brazil;
– German 10-year approaches key resistance at 60-ish bps as ‘zone economy rips;

Currency
– Dollar seems to have caught Trump flu.  Usually gets sneezy  squeezy down here;
– Dollar/yen weak on speculation BoJ to start tapering;

Week_Chart_1

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– Euro breaks resistance at 1.20.  Economic rip and hope of a Merkel government.

Stocks
– EM stocks continue to rock;
— Russia in catch-up mode;
– Mexico hit on reports U.S. wants to dump NAFTA;
— Nigeria, baby!  Though POTUS may not, markets love the “shithole” countries.

.Week_2017_ETFs

Other Risk Indicators
– VIX up even as new records are ubiquitous;
– Trannies rocking the free world;
–  Euro banks on verge of breaking out.

Commodities
– Crude breaking to new highs;
– The widow maker (Nattie) up yuge on record inventory draw;
– Grains continue to trade like wet dogs that don’t hunt.

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Week_2017

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