Week In Review: Global Stocks Riding “Big Mama”

Portugal’s Hugo Vau has surfed one of the biggest waves ever seen at Nazare, it’s been claimed, but is it enough to beat the world record?

Weekly_Chart4

The wave — nicknamed ‘Big Mama’ — was reported to be up to 35-metres-high, which, if confirmed, would beat current Guinness Book of Records holder Garrett McNamara, who tackled a 23-metre one at Praia do Norte in 2011. – euronews, Jan 19, 2018

Summary

Global equities continue to ride “Big Mama,” which shows no sign it is ready to break. But, break it will.   Then we will not just see who is swimming naked but who can swim, period.

The government shutdown a non-burger, in our opinion,  unless it continues for more than two weeks. We could be wrong, however, as the perception of the U.S. around the world is dropping like a stone, which may explain some of the dollar’s weakness.

We suspect the market will begin to fear the “blue wave” around  the beginning of summer.  Or maybe not.

Until then enjoy the thrill and trade ’em until the break!

Fixed-income

– Relative big move through resistance in U.S. 10-year yield. Lot’s of shorts. If
past is prologue, should get a squeeze here. Confident, however, that if
stocks maintain mojo we will see 3 percent sooner than the market expects;
– Turkey out on political and geopolitical concerns;
– U.S. credit remains well behaved and in a nice feedback loop with equities.

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Currencies

– No bounce in the dollar. Weak dollar with rising bond yields is a red flag;
– Mexican peso to a six-week high on NAFTA hopes.

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Stocks

– Global stocks keep on ripping, especially emerging markets;
– Australia lagging on higher rates and stronger currency;
– Nigeria, baby! ETF up over 20 percent in dollar terms in January.

Week_2017_ETFs

Other Risk Indicators

– VIX up again as stocks move higher another red flag;
– U.S. semis continue to motor;
– Profit taking hits energy sector.

Commodities

– Lumber prices continue to grow like redwood;
– A relatively quiet week in the commodity sector;
– Cryptos sucked out all the commodity vol this week.

Week_2017

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2 Responses to Week In Review: Global Stocks Riding “Big Mama”

  1. Pingback: Rearview to Preview… – Banyan Capital Management LLC

  2. Pingback: The Risk to the Rally | Terence Reilly's Wall Street Blog

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