Monthly Archives: September 2018

German 10-year At 47 bps As Inflation Prints 2.3 Percent

Really efficient markets, no?   The Germans  ECB loves a real 10-year negative carry. This is absurd and tantamount to confiscating the savings of hard working Germans.  Only going to add to the country’s already rising political tensions. As Holger notes, … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Germany, Interest Rates, Sovereign Debt, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 5 Comments

Month In Review – September

Summary Q3 saw major carnage in the emerging markets with Argentina, Turkey, and India’s currency taking major hits Big blowout in 10-year yields, though Turkish bonds rallied came in over 350 bps in September The S&P was flat up 0.50 percent … Continue reading

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Protecting Workers Without Tariffs | Robert Shiller

Published on Sep 24, 2018 Why do so many Americans support the US-initiated trade war that Donald Trump is pursuing? The most likely reason stems from the job insecurity that free trade often creates, which is why governments must find … Continue reading

Posted in Economics, Trade War | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Sector ETF Performance – September 28

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Global Risk Monitor – September 28

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Rising Oil Prices And Midterm Elections

The price of crude oil is up 36 percent since President Trump took office, squeezing the consumer at the pump and offsetting most of the personal net income gains from the tax cuts. The rise in gas prices has cannibalized … Continue reading

Posted in Crude Oil, Cyprus, Politics, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 5 Comments

The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market 2.0

Here it is, folks,  the final product. It is a beast.  One famous blogger said of it, “This post is so big, you can see it from space.” We hope you take the time to give it a thorough read.  … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Emerging Markets, Fiscal Policy, Inflation/Deflation, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 34 Comments

All eyes on Trump as world leaders gather for UN General Assembly

After President Donald Trump used last year’s UN General Assembly to outline his ‘’America First’’ policy, many nations are stressing the importance of old alliances and partnerships.… READ MORE : http://www.euronews.com/2018/09/23/al…

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The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market

Summary Our analysis provides kind of a Grand Unified Theory (GUT) of what is currently taking place in global financial markets The massive borrowing by the U.S. Treasury is crowding out emerging markets capital flows The structural factors that have kept long-term … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Capital Flows, Emerging Markets, Fiscal Policy, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 54 Comments

Who Is Funding The U.S. Budget Deficit?

Here is a little teaser for our coming post on the Treasury market, which should be out tomorrow.  The latest data is from the Flow of Funds just posted by the Federal Reserve Board (FRB). Note,  less gold (Fed) and … Continue reading

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