Monthly Archives: October 2018

On This Day In History: The Fed Put Is Born

Or, at least, went into labor.     Wow,  three decades and one year today, I was a young economist at the World Bank.  My friend and I, now the chief economist at the FDIC, were graduate students and walked … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged | 35 Comments

Fighting Back 2.0

Cruel scene, but love the fight back. Trophy this, D-bags!  You go, Dumbo! NEW: Elephants charge at hunters after they shoot and kill a member of the herd in Namibia.https://t.co/hKkucYMQNn pic.twitter.com/mYG7HE4O7d — Yashar Ali 🐘 (@yashar) October 18, 2018  

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Chinese Stocks Have Been Shanghaied

Shanghai – term describing a type of kidnapping.  Back in the 17th and 18th century in back alleys behind orphanages and bars there were trap doors that were watched and opened on drunken people or wandering children, then the children or drunks were … Continue reading

Posted in China, Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Free Ride Is Over: China & Japan Bailing On Treasuries

We had a request to look at the annual change in foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities as an addendum to our post from last night. It’s clear the two largest foreign creditors to the United States government are pulling … Continue reading

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“The Reign Of The Middle-Aged White Men Is Over”

Yikes!  Sounds like a House Of Cards,  Claire…   Just, maybe, it is. It’s dark but so is the real thing currently.   House of Cards is one reason why  NFLX is up in a down tape today — superb original content.  However,  … Continue reading

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China and Japan Continue To Reduce Treasury Holdings

The U.S. Treasury just released the August TIC (Treasury International Capital) data at the market close. The key takeaways: China and Japan, the U.S. government’s two largest foreign creditors, continue to reduce their Treasury holdings, both down $6 billion in … Continue reading

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Social Security In Deficit = More Public Treasury Borrowing

Summary Largely ignored by the markets,  Social Security moved into structural deficit this year Social Security has been running primary deficits since the GFC; that is financing itself by the interest earned on Treasury securities The government will no longer … Continue reading

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FOMC: Hardly Tight, Hardly Loco

The data speaks for itself. Real Effective Fed Funds Rate (REFFR) The real effective Fed Funds rate (REFFR), the Federal Reserve’s target rate of overnight commercial bank reserves lending rate less the CPI year-on-year change,  remains negative for the 36th … Continue reading

Posted in Fed, Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 7 Comments

Jamie And JP Mo = Class

JP Morgan's Jamie Dimon pulls out of Saudi conference https://t.co/4qwl8Z8d46 — CNBC (@CNBC) October 14, 2018

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More “Cranes Of Dubai” In NYC

You heard it here first, Comrades! Just back home after a week-long road trip to many major U.S. cities. The “Cranes Of Dubai”  As an economist, I am always looking for anecdotal evidence of how the local economy is doing.  … Continue reading

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