Monthly Archives: November 2018

Cue “Exit the BREXIT” & Other GMM Victory Laps

Because we get a lot of things wrong in the trading business as nobody knows the future, and every decision to buy or sell is really just a probability adjusted or calculated guess, we thought we would take a victory … Continue reading

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U.S. Treasury Market Borrowing & Global Foreign Savings

We were curious about how much U.S. Treasury market borrowings have increased relative to global foreign savings and whipped together the table below. We define  global foreign savings here as the cumulative current account surpluses of all the world’s surplus nations. The … Continue reading

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Multiple root problems lie behind Italy’s economic woes – FT

Great synopsis of Italy’s economic and political woes by the FT. The country’s lagging GDP per capita is all you need to know to understand the cause of the political conflict and rise of left-right Italian populism. We were surprised … Continue reading

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Is The 10-Year S&P500 Rally At Risk?

We don’t know and neither does anyone else. We do know, however,  the market trades horribly;  it can’t hold its water on rallies;  has lost its leadership and trades rudderless,  and the index is getting close to testing some key … Continue reading

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The Rack Trade Cometh & Killeth

The following trade is causing some mega pain and panic unwind within the energy trading community: Long Crude Oil futures/Short Natural Gas Futures It’s painful enough to be squeezed, but to be taking it at both ends is unbearable and … Continue reading

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Rome Is Burning, Again

This is insane. It is getting old and hard to breath.  Godspeed to those suffering. Insane footage of the California fires. 🎥 via @abc7la — Lori McNee (@lorimcneeartist) November 13, 2018  

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Mr. Market’s Biggest Headwind

At the end of September, we posted our analysis of the structural changes taking place in the Treasury market,  The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market 2.0,  which was very well received and still getting thousands of hits per week. Crowding Out Our … Continue reading

Posted in Budget Deficit, Capital Flows, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 20 Comments

Is The U.S. Dollar Over/Undervalued?

If you are planning on retiring to a country other than the United States, you may want to have a glance at our following analysis. Purchasing Power Parity We have taken the October IMF WEO database and backed out their … Continue reading

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In Honor Of Veteran’s Day: The Butterfly Effect

To honor Veterans’s Day,  we are reposting our June 2017 butterfly piece, which illustrates how sleepwalking can lead the world into a war that nobody wants. French President, Emmanuel Macron, warned today about sleepwalking into another great conflict. “I know … Continue reading

Posted in Geopolitical, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 15 Comments

Sector ETF Performance – November 9

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