Just a quick note on the midterms as we await for the full results.
The Lavender Wave (pink + blue) that we were expecting did materialize, though not as strong, and swept the Republicans from the House. Suburban and college-educated women came out big last night, and a record number of over 100 women were elected to Congress.
This will truly be the year of women flexing their political clout. – GMM
It looks the number of House seats lost will come in at around 37, which puts the 2018 midterm the third worst showing for a first-term post-war president, and worst for a Republican president. It is 17 seats lower than what the presidential approval model predicted but certainly not an outlier. See chart.
The pick-up of Senate seats by Republicans was historic,
It was the first time since the nation started directly electing senators in 1914 that a party has won control of the House without gaining seats in the Senate. – USA Today
Midterm Results In A General Election
As soon as the full results are in, we plan to overlay the midterm results into a general election framework based on votes from each Congressional district. That is we will aggregate this data state-by-state and calculate the electoral college.
We have no idea how the data will shake out. Stay tuned.
Note: The variance of the data points seems to increase the lower the presidential approval rating. Got it, only three data points, but indicates heteroskedasticity.