Search Results for: The New Supply Side

The New “Supply-Side Economics” Fueling Asset Bubbles

No, we are not talking about President Reagan’s supply-side economics — policies to increase productivity with the goal of increasing long-term aggregate supply or output while simultaneously reducing inflation. We now have a new kind of supply-side economics, just the … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 15 Comments

The 2012 Blind Side: China’s Housing Bust

As the world’s attention focuses on the death of Kim Jong Il and shorts keep piling up in the Euro,  China’s real estate bubble appears to have finally burst.   This is the one macro swan that could really smack developed … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China | Tagged | 2 Comments

Macro Notes from the Supply Chain

Here’s something from Digitimes that should be closely monitored: PCB suppliers see drop in 4Q11 orders Combined orders placed with Taiwan-based PCB manufacturers for the fourth quarter of 2011 are likely to slip 15% or more sequentially, according to industry … Continue reading

Posted in Apple, Economics, Technology | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

The New Gold Rush?

Rare Earth (REE) stocks,  including Molycorp,  got hammered today and we added a little to our position.  These  stocks are over extended as most are up over 100 percent in the past month. We believe this story has legs and … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Commodities, Equities, Geopolitical, Gold, Rare Earth Elements | Tagged , | 3 Comments

FOMC: A Big Double Cheese Non-Burger

Monetary policy history made today. The  Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  confirmed it would begin its long-awaited quantitative tightening (QT). In October, the Committee will initiate the balance sheet normalization program described in the June 2017 Addendum to the Committee’s … Continue reading

Posted in China, Euro, Eurozone Sovereign Spreads, Fed, German Bund, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Debt | Tagged , | 2 Comments

Asset Markets, The Sports Illustrated Jinx, And The Dodgers

Why do stocks and assets markets crash? Why is there is a Sports Illustrated jinx and magazine cover stories often signal a sign of a top or bottom of the subject being portrayed? Regression to the mean, or, more simply, … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Equities, Housing, Inflation/Deflation, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 17 Comments

The Gold-Bond Correlation And Other Macro Observations

We have posted several pieces over this year noting the high correlation of gold and 10-year bond futures. See here, here and here. Here is how the gold ETF (GLD) and the Treasury ETF (TLT) have moved together over various … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Gold, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 10 Comments

Week in Review – August 25

Global Stock Indices Kind of a quiet week for developed markets (DM) though with an upward bias. Emerging markets continue to rip higher with Brazil up almost 4 percent for the week on expectations of a massive sale of state … Continue reading

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Debate Within The FOMC: Bubblistas v. Efficient Marketistas?

We have finally made the time to more closely review the release of last week’s Fed minutes from the July 25-26 meeting.   We kind of like what we see. Debate Breaking Out Among FOMC Members? A debate appears to breaking … Continue reading

Posted in Equities, Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 9 Comments

Earnings Beat “Fist Pumps” Very Muted This Quarter

Stephen Gandel of Bloomberg out with a good piece this morning on: …shares of companies that have reported both better-than-expected profits and sales for the second quarter have barely budged this earnings season. It’s the least fist-bumping investors have done … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 10 Comments