Search Results for: The New Supply Side

The New Supply-Side Of Housing & Landlord Nation

David Stockman tweeted the following Zero Hedge chart this morning. Clearly, a shift in the supply curve for new homes to the left. OK  – and some buying at irrational prices fueled by artificially low-interest rates and excess money.  The … Continue reading

Posted in Housing, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , | 20 Comments

The New “Supply-Side Economics” Fueling Asset Bubbles

No, we are not talking about President Reagan’s supply-side economics — policies to increase productivity with the goal of increasing long-term aggregate supply or output while simultaneously reducing inflation. We now have a new kind of supply-side economics, just the … Continue reading

Posted in Uncategorized | 31 Comments

Supply (lack of ) Driven Bull Market

I had an interesting conversation with an economist friend this morning about inflation and excess capacity. He sees no evidence of excess capacity in the U.S. economy, including the service sector, where he cannot find, say, a plumber for hire … Continue reading

Posted in Charts, Equities, Inflation/Deflation, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

The 2012 Blind Side: China’s Housing Bust

As the world’s attention focuses on the death of Kim Jong Il and shorts keep piling up in the Euro,  China’s real estate bubble appears to have finally burst.   This is the one macro swan that could really smack developed … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China | Tagged | 2 Comments

Macro Notes from the Supply Chain

Here’s something from Digitimes that should be closely monitored: PCB suppliers see drop in 4Q11 orders Combined orders placed with Taiwan-based PCB manufacturers for the fourth quarter of 2011 are likely to slip 15% or more sequentially, according to industry … Continue reading

Posted in Apple, Economics, Technology | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

The New Gold Rush?

Rare Earth (REE) stocks,  including Molycorp,  got hammered today and we added a little to our position.  These  stocks are over extended as most are up over 100 percent in the past month. We believe this story has legs and … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Commodities, Equities, Geopolitical, Gold, Rare Earth Elements | Tagged , | 3 Comments

The Tale Of Two Fat Tails

In a normal probability distribution…blue curve), the odds of risky outcomes (bad stuff happening) are thin at the extremes. In fat-tailed distributions, such outcomes have a greater chance of occurring (the [greenish] curve). Source Non-normal distributions can be heavily skewed and … Continue reading

Posted in Algos, Climate Change, Economics, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , | 37 Comments

QE And The Laurel vs. Yanny Distortion

Interesting clip from Wired,  interviewing  a neuroscientist explaining how people get the sound Laurel and Yanny name so different. The interview is profound if you take the principles and apply them to the markets.  It’s all about reading the correct … Continue reading

Posted in Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , | 14 Comments

Trump Plays Checkers, Xi And Kim Play 3-D Chess

  …what Kim’s move reveals is a broader strategy at work. In the lead-up to the Singapore summit, should it still take place, Trump may be preparing for the wrong game: a two-player round of checkers when Kim is steeling … Continue reading

Posted in Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , | 2 Comments

Deconstructing The U.S. Jobs Market

Summary We compare the first 15 payroll reports of the Trump administration to the last 15 of the Obama administration As of the end of April 2018, the Trump economy has generated 2.7 million jobs versus 3.1 million in Obama’s … Continue reading

Posted in Employment, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 3 Comments