Author Archives: macromon

Trump Plays Checkers, Xi And Kim Play 3-D Chess

  …what Kim’s move reveals is a broader strategy at work. In the lead-up to the Singapore summit, should it still take place, Trump may be preparing for the wrong game: a two-player round of checkers when Kim is steeling … Continue reading

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Macro Swan Watch: Deutsche Bank, Again

Deutsche Bank (DB) stock is approaching single digits again.   Watch this space.  In 2016,  DB traded with a single digit handle for a few seconds before, we suspect, the monetary authorities stepped in. When a “too big to fail” (TBTF) … Continue reading

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Political unknown as Italy’s new Prime Minister?

Italy’s populist Five Star Movement and the far-right League have proposed Giuseppe Conte as the country’s new prime minister.… READ MORE :…

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Macro Swan Watch: German-Italy Sovereign Spread

The 10-year German-Italy sovereign spread out another 26 bps today, that’s almost 70 bps wider in the month of May.   The swans continue to gather.  

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Just to be clear….

Markets are all lathered up over a China Trade deal?  WTF? Alternatively, is the market higher because of just the cessation of hostility and talk the trade war is now  “on hold.” Whatever the case, here is the exchange with … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 18 Comments

How Sustainable Is Earnings Growth?

Not very. We will leave the calculation for the entire stock market to the stock analysts. Here’s why: Just glancing over WalMart’s latest earnings release from the week, we see two one-off macro factors that helped WalMart’s earnings in Q1, … Continue reading

Posted in Dollar, Earnings, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 33 Comments

The Upheaval in Central America – Project Syndicate

The macro swans continue (swans = crows in this video) to gather. Social and political upheaval in Central America – in particular, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua – is sending many north in search of a better life. The region’s current … Continue reading

Posted in Geopolitical, Politics, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 34 Comments

Week In Review – May 18

Summary Omnifarious selling in emerging markets this week and signal global liquidity is tightening up EM 10-year yields higher across the board from Mexico up 20 bps to Turkey up 125 bps Euro periphery spreads blow out. Italy 34 bps … Continue reading

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Global Risk Monitor – May 18

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Sector ETF Performance – May 18

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