Author Archives: macromon

The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market 2.0

Here it is, folks,  the final product. It is a beast.  One famous blogger said of it, “This post is so big, you can see it from space.” We hope you take the time to give it a thorough read.  … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Emerging Markets, Fiscal Policy, Inflation/Deflation, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

All eyes on Trump as world leaders gather for UN General Assembly

After President Donald Trump used last year’s UN General Assembly to outline his ‘’America First’’ policy, many nations are stressing the importance of old alliances and partnerships.… READ MORE : http://www.euronews.com/2018/09/23/al…

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The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market

Summary Our analysis provides kind of a Grand Unified Theory (GUT) of what is currently taking place in global financial markets The massive borrowing by the U.S. Treasury is crowding out emerging markets capital flows The structural factors that have kept long-term … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Capital Flows, Emerging Markets, Fiscal Policy, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 54 Comments

Who Is Funding The U.S. Budget Deficit?

Here is a little teaser for our coming post on the Treasury market, which should be out tomorrow.  The latest data is from the Flow of Funds just posted by the Federal Reserve Board (FRB). Note,  less gold (Fed) and … Continue reading

Posted in Capital Flows, Charts, Debt, Fiscal Policy, Politics, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

The Feast Of Big Tech

Big Oil and banks market cap leadership have been eaten by Tech companies. pic.twitter.com/0N7LidrQaO — Richard Greco (@RichardGreco) September 19, 2018

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Salary Needed To Purchase Average Home By State

Salary needed to afford average home price in each state: pic.twitter.com/r5O1sPsidP — Ninja Economics (@NinjaEconomics) September 17, 2018

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What Drives The Trade Deficit?

It’s the national savings-investment imbalance, Stupid! It is explained clearly by the following national income identity, which we have posted several times over the years. (S-I) + (T-G) = Current Account Balance (Foreign Savings)  (S-I) is the ‘private savings balance’ … Continue reading

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Double Yikes!!!

I keep hearing the chorus from cheerleaders the market is, “cheap, cheap, cheap,” S&P 500 Price-to-Sales Ratio Highest Since https://t.co/m0tkceVXJD Bubble https://t.co/YrdNDGQ1MS pic.twitter.com/XU1q2ZLz5V — Anthony Sanders (@AnthonyBSanders) September 17, 2018  

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QOTD: Complex Adaptive Financial System

….the financial system is complex and hard to understand. It was, in fact, at least partly the growing complexity of the system that got us into such a mess in the first place. – Catherine Rampell, Washington Post

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Long-Term Treasury: 4 Percent Or Bust

Great chart from Charlie B.   He asked 3.5 or 2.5 percent? We say beeline to 4 percent, when the rate breaks 3.13 percent, and quicker than the market believes. It’s been 10 years since Lehman,  nominal GDP is growing close … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged | 1 Comment