Category Archives: Black Swan Watch

Where The Next Financial Crisis Begins

We are not sure of how the next financial crisis will exactly unfold but reasonably confident it will have its roots in the following analysis.   Maybe it has already begun. The U.S. Treasury market is the center of the financial … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, ECB, Fed, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 33 Comments

The Taiwan Strait Getting Hot, Hot, Hot…

We posted the following in July after President Trump threw Montenegro under the bus. Taiwan may be about to get hot, hot, hot in the next year after last night’s Commander in Chief’s ambiguous message on defense treaties.  – GMM One … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 19 Comments

On This Day In History: The Fed Put Is Born

Or, at least, went into labor.     Wow,  three decades and one year today, I was a young economist at the World Bank.  My friend and I, now the chief economist at the FDIC, were graduate students and walked … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged | 35 Comments

The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market

Summary Our analysis provides kind of a Grand Unified Theory (GUT) of what is currently taking place in global financial markets The massive borrowing by the U.S. Treasury is crowding out emerging markets capital flows The structural factors that have kept long-term … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Capital Flows, Emerging Markets, Fiscal Policy, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 54 Comments

Long-Term Treasury: 4 Percent Or Bust

Great chart from Charlie B.   He asked 3.5 or 2.5 percent? We say beeline to 4 percent, when the rate breaks 3.13 percent, and quicker than the market believes. It’s been 10 years since Lehman,  nominal GDP is growing close … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged | 1 Comment

Dalio on Turkey, Argentina, and the Next Economic Downturn

Sep.12 — Ray Dalio, co-chairman and founder at Bridgewater Associates, examines the crises is Turkey and Argentina and explains his expectations for the next economic downturn. He speaks with Bloomberg’s Erik Schatzker on “Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas.”

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Other Fowl Plays In The Emerging Markets

Fowl Play? The Twisted Linguistics of Turkey American turkeys and African guinea fowl, victims of Portuguese vagary, became inextricably mixed. Today the geographically garbled turkey is known as dinde (from poule d’Inde or chicken of India) in France, kalkoen (from Calicut hen) in the Netherlands, and indjushka (Indian … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Emerging Markets, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 13 Comments

Contrarian Crush & Why LT Rates Are Going Much Higher

This Bloomberg  piece was published before Facebook blew up but still you get the drift.  Betting against the crowd has been a disaster recently.   It always is until it isn’t. In the past year, a contrarian portfolio that invests in … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

Charts That Count: Another China Crisis? – FT

China’s currency has devalued sharply against the dollar in recent weeks. The last time China surprised the markets with a devaluation, in the summer of 2015, it prompted a global sell-off of risk assets. John Authers discusses why China’s currency … Continue reading

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Swan Lake – July 9

The Global Macro Monitor defines “macro swan” as any global macroeconomic or financial event with the capacity to spill over into world markets causing risk aversion and lower asset prices.  – GMM “We won the trade war.”  The market narrative du … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 6 Comments