Category Archives: Black Swan Watch

Swan Lake – June 20

The Global Macro Monitor defines “macro swan” as any global macroeconomic or financial event with the capacity to spill over into world markets causing risk aversion and lower asset prices.  – GMM Another relatively quiet day on Swan Lake. Italian 2-year … Continue reading

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Swan Lake – June 19

Surprisingly few ripples on Swan Lake today. The Turkish lira, Argentine peso, and SA rand a bit weaker. We are stunned at the complacency in the markets given the hawkish Fed and now coupled with trade war jitters.   These are … Continue reading

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Swan Lake – June 18

Same story, different day. Euro periphery continues to recover with short-end outperforming. EM LatAm currencies stable x/ Brazil.   South Africa lower. Brazil and Mexican stocks lower.    

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Swan Lake – June 14

The Global Macro Monitor defines “macro swan” as any global macroeconomic or financial event with the capacity to spill over into world markets causing risk aversion and lower asset prices.  – GMM The Euro periphery continued to rebound.  The big news … Continue reading

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Swan Lake – June 13

The Global Macro Monitor defines “macro swan” as any global macroeconomic or financial event with the capacity to spill over into world markets causing risk aversion and lower asset prices.  – GMM The Euro swans continue to stabilize.   Barry Eichengreen out … Continue reading

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Swan Lake – June 12

The Global Macro Monitor defines “macro swan” as any global macroeconomic or financial event with the capacity to spill over into world markets causing risk aversion and lower asset prices.  – GMM Euro sovereign spreads were stable today.  The Italy … Continue reading

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Swan Lake – June 11

We are not discussing any proposal to exit the euro. The government is determined to avoid the materialisation of market conditions that push us towards an exit in any way.  –  Giovanni Tria,  Italian finance minister, June 11 Italian and Euro … Continue reading

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Swan Lake – June 7

The swans were restless and a bit weaker today. Italy 10-year is blowing out again, now just ten bps below May 29th closing high of 3.16 percent.  The yield curve in Italy continues its re-flattening, as shorts seem to be … Continue reading

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Swan Lake – June 6

The swans were relatively well behaved today.  Watch Brazil. Significant move in Italian 2-year, up 35 bps, resulting in big curve flattener.  Yields up across the board in Europe as ECB making noises QE is about to change. Mario Draghi … Continue reading

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Swan Lake – June 5

Swans behaving badly + VIX down = Complacency reigns  

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