Category Archives: Black Swan Watch

Asset Markets, The Sports Illustrated Jinx, And The Dodgers

Why do stocks and assets markets crash? Why is there is a Sports Illustrated jinx and magazine cover stories often signal a sign of a top or bottom of the subject being portrayed? Regression to the mean, or, more simply, … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Equities, Housing, Inflation/Deflation, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 17 Comments

Sovereign Risk and Debt Crises

We received some interesting pushback on our recent post, Is the U.S. Government Bankrupt?  Not Even Close. The purpose of the post was to remind readers to not ignore the left side of a government’s balance sheet — assets —  … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Euro, Eurozone Sovereign Spreads, Italy, Japan, Uncategorized | Tagged , | Leave a comment

China: towering credit – FT

China is reining in capital investments as the authorities show their determination to slow credit growth. Rafael Halpin, a China Confidential analyst, explains to John Authers the scale and the implications of China’s slowdown.   –  FT (click here if video … Continue reading

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Weekend Lecture: Bend, Not Break – Ping Fu

This is a great story! CEO of GeoMagic Ping Fu discusses her book – “Bend not Break: A Life in Two Worlds” with Google’s Chade-Meng Tan. *********************************************************** (click here if video is not observable)

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Stratfor: 2013 Annual Forecast Preview

This is a great preview of the potential geopolitical swans you should monitoring in 2013. Stratfor’s Vice President of Global Analysis Reva Bhalla discusses the key geopolitical developments for 2013. For more analysis, visit: (click here if video is … Continue reading

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The Collaspe In Cosmic GDP

Wow! Peak oil.  Peak food production.  Now (11 billion years ago) peak star production. The Royal Astronomical Society writes, ‘Cosmic GDP’ crashes 97% as star formation slumps While parts of the world experience economic hardship, a team of Portuguese, UK, … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Chart of the Day, General Interest | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

“US Set to Restage Greek Tragedy” – Der Spiegel

How is the rest of the world (ROW) viewing America’s fiscal problems? Here is Germany’s Der Speigel, The US has more in common with heavily indebted southern European countries than it might like to admit. And if the country doesn’t … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Dollar, Fiscal Policy, Germany | Tagged , , , | 15 Comments

The Political Black Swan

Fiscal cliff collides with a replay of the Bush v Gore 2000 fiasco.  Not good. We noted in an earlier post today Governor Romney has moved ahead of President Obama on the Real Clear Politics electoral map for the first … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Politics | Tagged , , , | 3 Comments

Debt of Honor in the East & South China Seas

We can’t  help but think the Chinese are reading Tom Clancy’s 1994 thriller, Debt of Honor, as we watch their latest tiff with Japan unfold.  Recall China suspended its exports of rare earths to Japan in September 2010 over a similar … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Geopolitical, Japan | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

Sweet & Sour Channel Stuffing and the Shanghai Swan Dive

The news out China seems to be getting worse. Last week the NY Times reported about China’s huge inventory build of unsold goods, GUANGZHOU, China — After three decades of torrid growth, China is encountering an unfamiliar problem with its … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, ECB | Tagged , , , | 5 Comments