Category Archives: Black Swan Watch

Contrarian Crush & Why LT Rates Are Going Much Higher

This Bloomberg  piece was published before Facebook blew up but still you get the drift.  Betting against the crowd has been a disaster recently.   It always is until it isn’t. In the past year, a contrarian portfolio that invests in … Continue reading

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Charts That Count: Another China Crisis? – FT

China’s currency has devalued sharply against the dollar in recent weeks. The last time China surprised the markets with a devaluation, in the summer of 2015, it prompted a global sell-off of risk assets. John Authers discusses why China’s currency … Continue reading

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Swan Lake – July 9

The Global Macro Monitor defines “macro swan” as any global macroeconomic or financial event with the capacity to spill over into world markets causing risk aversion and lower asset prices.  – GMM “We won the trade war.”  The market narrative du … Continue reading

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Swan Lake – July 5

Dull.  Boring markets. Fireworks start tomorrow with the first shots are fired in the trade war.  The Trump administration has painted itself into a corner and the only way out is a unilateral capitulation on his part. EM Forget about.  … Continue reading

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Swan Lake – July 3

Just the facts data, ma’am… And the new market narrative by Tom Petty,    

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Swan Lake – July 2

Stunning we were just talking about a Mexican presidential candidate winning a plurality of less than 30 percent just a few months ago.   AMLO will enter office with a powerful mandate.  If only we knew for what? Swans relatively quiet.  … Continue reading

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Swan Lake – June 28

Dullsiville on Swan Lake today.  Argentine peso weaker.      

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Swan Lake – June 27

The Global Macro Monitor defines “macro swan” as any global macroeconomic or financial event with the capacity to spill over into world markets causing risk aversion and lower asset prices.  – GMM Risk markets finally starting to take the trade wars serious as … Continue reading

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Swan Lake – June 26

The Global Macro Monitor defines “macro swan” as any global macroeconomic or financial event with the capacity to spill over into world markets causing risk aversion and lower asset prices.  – GMM The fish weren’t biting on Swan Lake today.   The … Continue reading

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Swan Lake – June 25

The Global Macro Monitor defines “macro swan” as any global macroeconomic or financial event with the capacity to spill over into world markets causing risk aversion and lower asset prices.  – GMM The Swans were mixed today as the real action … Continue reading

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