Category Archives: Bonds

The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market 2.0

Here it is, folks,  the final product. It is a beast.  One famous blogger said of it, “This post is so big, you can see it from space.” We hope you take the time to give it a thorough read.  … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Emerging Markets, Fiscal Policy, Inflation/Deflation, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market

Summary Our analysis provides kind of a Grand Unified Theory (GUT) of what is currently taking place in global financial markets The massive borrowing by the U.S. Treasury is crowding out emerging markets capital flows The structural factors that have kept long-term … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Capital Flows, Emerging Markets, Fiscal Policy, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 54 Comments

Long-Term Treasury: 4 Percent Or Bust

Great chart from Charlie B.   He asked 3.5 or 2.5 percent? We say beeline to 4 percent, when the rate breaks 3.13 percent, and quicker than the market believes. It’s been 10 years since Lehman,  nominal GDP is growing close … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged | 1 Comment

“Yield-to-Death”: Tepper’s First EM Investment

“What is the yield-to-death?” Those words spoken by the legendary hedge fund king, and new owner of the Carolina Panthers, David Tepper, to my salesperson in 1993 when we were trying to convince him to buy a chunk of Peruvian … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Emerging Markets, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 6 Comments

Will The Real Bond King Stand Up?

We get it. Jeff Gundlach (we are some of his biggest fans) is a trader at heart, as are we, and is very cognizant of short-term market technicals. He recently tweeted, Massive increase this week in short positions against 10 … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 12 Comments

Contrarian Crush & Why LT Rates Are Going Much Higher

This Bloomberg  piece was published before Facebook blew up but still you get the drift.  Betting against the crowd has been a disaster recently.   It always is until it isn’t. In the past year, a contrarian portfolio that invests in … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

The Bund With A Draghi Tattoo

The consequences for global markets of an end to ECB QE will be much bigger than those associated with the end of the Fed’s QE –  Guillermo Tolosa, Oxford Economics Huge ECB meeting on Thursday.   Will Mario Draghi announce a path to normalize monetary … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, ECB, German Bund, Germany, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Major Holders Of The U.S. Corporate Bond Market

Summary Bullets The size of the U.S. corporate bond market, as measured by the Fed’s Flow of Funds, totals $13.1 trillion at the end of Q1 2018 It includes $10.2 trillion of domestic issues and $2.8 trillion of foreign issues … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Credit, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 2 Comments

Swan Lake – May 31

Italy calmer as market turns it focus on trade wars. Deutsche Bank making all-time lows as it was hammered again due to its U.S. business put on problem bank list.   DB is now getting the market’s attention but still doesn’t … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Euro, Eurozone Sovereign Spreads, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

Swan Lake – May 29

We have been warning over the past few weeks that the macro swans have been gathering.  See here, here, and here. Swan Watch The Global Macro Monitor defines “macro swan” as any global macroeconomic or financial event with the capacity … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Eurozone Sovereign Spreads, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 7 Comments