Category Archives: Bonds

America Thirst: China’s Flows Worrisome – Art Cashin

Just before the close, Art Cashin, one of the best out there, cited the weak Treasury auctions and, ergo, worries China is pulling back on its Treasury purchases as a major factor behind the ugly stock sell-off. Click here for … Continue reading

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Free Ride Is Over: China & Japan Bailing On Treasuries

We had a request to look at the annual change in foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities as an addendum to our post from last night. It’s clear the two largest foreign creditors to the United States government are pulling … Continue reading

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Week In Review – October 5

Summary Ugly week for Global Bonds.  Run to our Sept 23rd post, The Gathering Storm in the Treasury Market 2.0,  as to why we thought yields were about to spike.  Boy, did they Stocks followed bonds lower causing pain the … Continue reading

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Alea Iacta Est!

As Julius Caesar crossed the Rubicon River with the 13th legion into Italy to march on Rome, he turned to one of his deputies, quite possibly, Marc Antony, and made the famous remark, “alea iacta est.”  Historians translate this as “the die … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, German Bund, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 19 Comments

Get Shorty, Got Shorty, Still Shorty In 10-Year Notes

Interesting chart from Bloomberg on the growing record short position by specs in 10-year note futures.  Surprisingly,  there has been no meaningful squeeze in the 10-year during 2018, even with the massive equity volatility shock in early February. In fact,  … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Sovereign Debt, Uncategorized | Tagged | 6 Comments

German 10-year At 47 bps As Inflation Prints 2.3 Percent

Really efficient markets, no?   The Germans  ECB loves a real 10-year negative carry. This is absurd and tantamount to confiscating the savings of hard working Germans.  Only going to add to the country’s already rising political tensions. As Holger notes, … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Germany, Interest Rates, Sovereign Debt, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 5 Comments

The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market 2.0

Here it is, folks,  the final product. It is a beast.  One famous blogger said of it, “This post is so big, you can see it from space.” We hope you take the time to give it a thorough read.  … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Emerging Markets, Fiscal Policy, Inflation/Deflation, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 34 Comments

The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market

Summary Our analysis provides kind of a Grand Unified Theory (GUT) of what is currently taking place in global financial markets The massive borrowing by the U.S. Treasury is crowding out emerging markets capital flows The structural factors that have kept long-term … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Capital Flows, Emerging Markets, Fiscal Policy, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 54 Comments

Long-Term Treasury: 4 Percent Or Bust

Great chart from Charlie B.   He asked 3.5 or 2.5 percent? We say beeline to 4 percent, when the rate breaks 3.13 percent, and quicker than the market believes. It’s been 10 years since Lehman,  nominal GDP is growing close … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged | 1 Comment

“Yield-to-Death”: Tepper’s First EM Investment

“What is the yield-to-death?” Those words spoken by the legendary hedge fund king, and new owner of the Carolina Panthers, David Tepper, to my salesperson in 1993 when we were trying to convince him to buy a chunk of Peruvian … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Emerging Markets, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 6 Comments