Category Archives: Bonds

Party Like It’s 1999: U.S. – German 2-year Yield Divergence

What does this mean for capital flows?  Euro should weaken, but it ain’t! ECB timid and waaaay behind the curve. The policy divergence between the U.S. & Germany is widening. The gap between U.S. & German 2-year yields is at … Continue reading

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Another Divergence That Makes Us Nervous

Take a look at the divergence between the high-yield ETF (JNK) and the investment grade ETF (LQD).   This makes us a bit nervous – though no panic as JNK in only 1.28 percent off its high vs. the LQD, … Continue reading

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COTD: Corporate Debt

No lack of supply/issuance in the corporate debt market.   No shortage of demand either. Lots of nuances in interpreting data, however.  First, much of debt going to financial engineering, i.e., stock buybacks.  Some of the supply is borrowing against capital … Continue reading

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Bunds Wagging Treasuries

Take a look at the comparison chart of the nearest Bund and U.S. 10-year T-Note futures. Contrary to popular belief, this latest bond market sell-off was led by the German Bund and not U.S. Treasuries, flopping due to the current market … Continue reading

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Week In Review – September 15

Global Stock Indices Good week for stocks. Major U.S. major indices closed at record highs.   Brazilian stocks at new highs as traders remain confident President Temer will implement market reforms even though he faces a second round of corruption … Continue reading

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The Gold-Bond Correlation And Other Macro Observations

We have posted several pieces over this year noting the high correlation of gold and 10-year bond futures. See here, here and here. Here is how the gold ETF (GLD) and the Treasury ETF (TLT) have moved together over various … Continue reading

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Week in Review – August 18

Stock Indices Argentina stocks up big after the ruling coalition did better than expected in primary legislative elections last Sunday.  Emerging markets generally better bid than DMs.   Europe traded better as it looks the mighty Euro is taking a rest … Continue reading

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TOTD: Today’s Rare Market Feat

This would be the 4th time in 20 years that stocks, bonds and gold all up by > 0.25% on the Fed Chair’s semi-annual testimony.  – Sentimen Trader (TOTD = Table of the Day)

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2017 First Half Key Takeaways

Bonds  Big outperformance by local emerging markets and Euro periphery in first half.  Last week was pivotal as some bonds gave back almost entire year due to ECB hawkishness.  Watch this space.  More big moves here will determine asset trading … Continue reading

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The Bonds With A Draghi Tattoo

On Tuesday,  June 27th,  Super Mario said this, “Deflationary forces have been replaced by reflationary ones.”  – Mario Draghi And here is how global 10-year bond yields reacted, The German 10-year Bund yield increased 77 percent — OK, from a … Continue reading

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