Category Archives: Bonds

The Bund With A Draghi Tattoo

The consequences for global markets of an end to ECB QE will be much bigger than those associated with the end of the Fed’s QE –  Guillermo Tolosa, Oxford Economics Huge ECB meeting on Thursday.   Will Mario Draghi announce a path to normalize monetary … Continue reading

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Major Holders Of The U.S. Corporate Bond Market

Summary Bullets The size of the U.S. corporate bond market, as measured by the Fed’s Flow of Funds, totals $13.1 trillion at the end of Q1 2018 It includes $10.2 trillion of domestic issues and $2.8 trillion of foreign issues … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Credit, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 2 Comments

Swan Lake – May 31

Italy calmer as market turns it focus on trade wars. Deutsche Bank making all-time lows as it was hammered again due to its U.S. business put on problem bank list.   DB is now getting the market’s attention but still doesn’t … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Euro, Eurozone Sovereign Spreads, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

Swan Lake – May 29

We have been warning over the past few weeks that the macro swans have been gathering.  See here, here, and here. Swan Watch The Global Macro Monitor defines “macro swan” as any global macroeconomic or financial event with the capacity … Continue reading

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Europe Has A Big Problem

Italy’s president, Sergio Mattarella,  named Carlo Cottarelli, prime minister as the attempt to form a left-right populist coalition government fell apart after Mattarella’s veto of Eurosceptic economist, Paolo Savona as finance minister.    An extraordinary development almost tantamount to the Queen … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Euro, Eurozone Sovereign Spreads, Italian Yields, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 32 Comments

Week In Review – May 25

Summary The S&P500 is trapped in a 2-week trading range between 2707 to 2742. Of note, 2742.92 is the 61.8 Fibo in the correction, 2702.78 the 50 percent level Fibo.  The 100-day moving average is also support at 2710.86.  Watch … Continue reading

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When The U.S. Government Defaulted

One of the most pervasive myths about the United States is that the federal government has never defaulted on its debts. There’s just one problem: it’s not true, and while few people remember the “gold clause cases” of the 1930s, … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Budget Deficit, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , | 43 Comments

QOTD: Druck On Distorted Interest Rates

…today we have settled to allowing the most important price of all, long-term interest rates, to be regularly distorted by public intervention. …If I were trying to create a deflationary bust, I would do exact exactly what the world’s central … Continue reading

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Italy’s North-South Economic Divide – France24

Italy 10-year closed at 1.88 percent today,  6.7 bps wider versus the 10-year bund for the week, but still 14 bps tighter year-to-date. The Italian 10-year government bond is 112 bps through the U.S. 10-year note yield, and the country … Continue reading

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Dimon Says Prepare for 4% Yields – Bloomberg

Wow!  It sounds like Jamie read our recent post,  Prepare For Much Higher Long-Term Rates.   Nah, we are just on the same page. He speculates the yield curve will not invert as it did in the last tightening cycle; long-term … Continue reading

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