Category Archives: Capital Flows

Mr. Market’s Biggest Headwind

At the end of September, we posted our analysis of the structural changes taking place in the Treasury market,  The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market 2.0,  which was very well received and still getting thousands of hits per week. Crowding Out Our … Continue reading

Posted in Budget Deficit, Capital Flows, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 20 Comments

America Thirst: China’s Flows Worrisome – Art Cashin

Just before the close, Art Cashin, one of the best out there, cited the weak Treasury auctions and, ergo, worries China is pulling back on its Treasury purchases as a major factor behind the ugly stock sell-off. Click here for … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Budget Deficit, Capital Flows, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Free Ride Is Over: China & Japan Bailing On Treasuries

We had a request to look at the annual change in foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities as an addendum to our post from last night. It’s clear the two largest foreign creditors to the United States government are pulling … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Capital Flows, China, Japan, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

The New FX Model: PMI Differentials?

One of Australia’s finest, and best market analyst, Greg McKenna, and more important, our good friend, posits a new exchange rate determination model:  PMI differentials. We cut our teeth as a young economist on Anne Krueger‘s book,  Exchange Rate Determination. … Continue reading

Posted in Capital Flows, Exchange Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 3 Comments

The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market

Summary Our analysis provides kind of a Grand Unified Theory (GUT) of what is currently taking place in global financial markets The massive borrowing by the U.S. Treasury is crowding out emerging markets capital flows The structural factors that have kept long-term … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Capital Flows, Emerging Markets, Fiscal Policy, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 54 Comments

Who Is Funding The U.S. Budget Deficit?

Here is a little teaser for our coming post on the Treasury market, which should be out tomorrow.  The latest data is from the Flow of Funds just posted by the Federal Reserve Board (FRB). Note,  less gold (Fed) and … Continue reading

Posted in Capital Flows, Charts, Debt, Fiscal Policy, Politics, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

EM Debt Flows

Hat Tip:   @tracyalloway

Posted in Capital Flows, Emerging Markets, Uncategorized | Tagged , | Leave a comment