Category Archives: Emerging Markets

A life of boom and bust: Can Argentina break the cycle?

A century ago, Argentina was one of the ten richest countries in the world. But crisis after crisis has earned it the dubious distinction of being the only nation ever to regress to developing country status. With hyperinflation, devaluations and … Continue reading

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The Interest Rate Paradox In Emerging Markets

In advanced economies, interest rates fall during recessions as investors replace risky assets such as stocks with safe assets such as bonds and cash. This makes fiscal stimulus easier. Everywhere else, recessions create fears of debt default or debt monetization … Continue reading

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Crude Reality For Emerging Markets

This chart comes to us via the “Polish Swish,” known for his nuttin’ but net baseline jumper.  It illustrates the local pain of rising oil prices in a few selected emerging markets. Crude oil is priced in dollars, and countries … Continue reading

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The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market 2.0

Here it is, folks,  the final product. It is a beast.  One famous blogger said of it, “This post is so big, you can see it from space.” We hope you take the time to give it a thorough read.  … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Emerging Markets, Fiscal Policy, Inflation/Deflation, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 38 Comments

The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market

Summary Our analysis provides kind of a Grand Unified Theory (GUT) of what is currently taking place in global financial markets The massive borrowing by the U.S. Treasury is crowding out emerging markets capital flows The structural factors that have kept long-term … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Capital Flows, Emerging Markets, Fiscal Policy, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 54 Comments

Asian markets versus other developing economies – FT

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“Yield-to-Death”: Tepper’s First EM Investment

“What is the yield-to-death?” Those words spoken by the legendary hedge fund king, and new owner of the Carolina Panthers, David Tepper, to my salesperson in 1993 when we were trying to convince him to buy a chunk of Peruvian … Continue reading

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The moment ‘Brazil’s Donald Trump’ is stabbed at election rally

RARELY has the aphorism “what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger” been more apt… Doctors said Mr Bolsonaro will be hospitalised for at least a week. But with a month left before the first round of the election on October … Continue reading

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Checking In On The Indicator Species

How are the indicator species of the global monetary ecosystem doing? Emerging markets and commodities are the first to feel the impact of tighter global liquidity.  – GMM, “Feels Like 1997,”  August 15th Charlie, once again, hits it out of the … Continue reading

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EM Debt Flows

Hat Tip:   @tracyalloway

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