Category Archives: Equities

Making The World Great Again

Maybe President Trump should not read this but last year was all about “Making The World Great Again.” Financial Markets As the data and graphs illustrate below, the U.S. stock market was in the bottom quintile of performance in dollar … Continue reading

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The Year In Review

An incredible year in the markets. Here’s a quick snapshot: Fixed-income – The high yielders significantly outperformed; – Greece 10-year yield down 300 bps in 2017; – China 10-year moved 85 bps higher to around 4 percent; – The U.S. … Continue reading

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Interest Rates Starting To Bite

We have long held that interest rates have been so low (especially real rates) that it will take some time to reach a level for them to really matter and impact markets. The 2-year yield crossing over the S&P500 divie … Continue reading

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Supply (lack of ) Driven Bull Market

I had an interesting conversation with an economist friend this morning about inflation and excess capacity. He sees no evidence of excess capacity in the U.S. economy, including the service sector, where he cannot find, say, a plumber for hire … Continue reading

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Ten Year Expected Returns

Ten Year Expected Returns. Nominal returns expected for the next decade, based on valuations model, see best opportunities in the depressed $EEM stock space with an 8% return.$SPY stocks are priced at 2.6% for the next 10 years while $EFA … Continue reading

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Bond Yields and Equity Prices

Interesting chart which reflects what we have been preaching for years. Central bank distorted and repressed bond yields result in a mispricing of all other assets. This chart goes a step further and quantifies it, though it assumes “all other … Continue reading

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There They Go Again: Dow Transports/Industrials Divergence

The Dow Transports are selling off as the Industrials are making new highs.  That’s a no no in Dow Theory.   We pointed out a similar divergence on August 1st. Not as relevant as it used to be,  but something … Continue reading

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Option Value of Cash More Valuable When Scarce

Look at the date of the cash peak and trough. Not a perfect timing chart, but you know you’re in the zip code.  Unless, of course, this time is different. It could take more time this time, however.

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Fed Day With Extremely Loose Financial Conditions

Today is the day,  folks. The consensus is the Fed announces the start of quantitative tightening (QT).   History in the making. Draining Liquidity Though monetary tightening officially began in December 2015,  this will be the first time the Fed drains … Continue reading

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Global Equities: Rockin’ In The Free World

Stunning table of the year-to-date returns of country ETFs coming to us via Charlie Bilello at Pension Partners. All the country ETFs are, should we say,  Rockin’ In The Free World, except for Russia, which has turned up and rockin’ the … Continue reading

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