Category Archives: Equities

Vampire Squid Plagiarism & The 1962 Bear Market

Not that we discovered the similarities between the recent volatility shock and 1962 we certainly were the first to cite it and write it up.  Goldie cribbed our research. Only three times since 1950 has intraday volatility jumped so high … Continue reading

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JFK-Trump S&P Analog – Trading Day 356


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Key Levels You Need To Know

The S&P500 sliced through its 200-day moving average like a “hot knife through budda’” today.  It’s the first close below the 200-day in almost two years.  Significant. The next stop is the February 9th intraday low at 2532.69, the Maginot … Continue reading

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The Looming Donnybrook Between Cyclical & Structural

This next quarter is going to be a major battle between the cyclical bulls and structural bears. Cyclical Bulls The bulls have the strength of current earnings, which may, or may not be priced (probably the later as the market is … Continue reading

Posted in Earnings, Economics, Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged | 17 Comments

Another S&P500 Streak Snapped

The first quarter ends with another snapped streak for the S&P500. Going into Q1, the S&P500 had delivered positive returns for 16 consecutive quarters or four straight years. The chart illustrates how rare the streak has been over the past half … Continue reading

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Q1 in Review

Q1: Lake Placid To The Mavericks The markets closed out the quarter trying to recover from one of the biggest volatility shocks in history, which began in early February.   The question for Q2 is:  Was the v-shock a one-off or a … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Commodities, Currency, Equities, Uncategorized, Week in Review | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Unmoored & Rudderless Stock Market

Didn’t today’s market feel like a rudderless sailboat ripped from its mooring and blown about by random gusts of wind (algos)?   We count the Dow crossed the unchanged line at least thirty times today. The generals have have been taken … Continue reading

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Our Favorite Pairs Trade

Difficult to short such beauty… Long Short

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The JFK-Trump S&P Analog Roadmap – BTFFD

We have had lots of requests to update our JFK-Trump S&P500 analog.  Here you go. The Kennedy-Trump S&P500 analog is tracking, on a directional basis, relatively well, with the Trump S&P now 3.56 percent below the JFK S&P, 347 trading … Continue reading

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China’s Other Nuclear Option

Sorry to be such a downer, folks. We have to stress test the macro scenarios versus current market conditions by looking at worst case events, then calculating expected values based on the most likely probabilities. Especially after such a huge … Continue reading

Posted in Apple, China, Equities, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 16 Comments