Category Archives: Equities

The Transition Trade

Nice chart (hat tip King David over at thinkinthemoring.com) from Wall Street Journal on the return of the Dow Jones after election day to the inauguration of presidents all the way back to McKinley when the Dow index was created. … Continue reading

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Reagan-Trump S&P500 Analog

We continue to track the meaningless (in terms of projecting trajectory)  Reagan-Trump S&P500 analog.  At their respective inaugurations, the Trump S&P is outperforming Reagan by 4.4 percent.  Note, Trump was inaugurated 51 trading days after the election whereas Reagan’s inauguration … Continue reading

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Obama’s Bull Market

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TOTD: Who Owns The U.S. Equity Market?

(TOTD = Table of the Day)

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How Are Those “Crowded Trades” Doing?

We take a look here at what BofA/Merrill Lynch has surveyed as the “most crowded trades” in the market.  Most are taking on water as the crowd is leaning to the same side of the boat. Big losses for Japanese … Continue reading

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Reagan-Trump S&P500 Analog

Trump rally holding.  Now outperforming Reagan’s S&P by 3.13 percent after 47 days from election day.   Meaningless in terms of predicting future performance.  But, fun, no?

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Reagan-Trump S&P500 Analog: Tracking

We’re still tracking the Reagan-Trump S&P500 analog.  We’ve noted it’s a fun exercise and probably useless in predicting the future move in the index given the different macroeconomic initial conditions at the beginning of both Administrations. But, hold on!   … Continue reading

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How Is That Reagan-Trump S&P500 Analog Working Out?

So far, at the close of 2016,  the Trump S&P500 is outperforming  the Reagan S&P500 by 0.38 percent, 38 days after the close of their respective election days.  The Trump bump has been a relatively steady climb before rolling over … Continue reading

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Reagan v Trump Macro Initial Conditions

We hear lots of talk these days about,  Why Donald Trump’s Market Rally Echoes Ronald Reagan’s.    We are big fans of Chaos Theory, Chaos theory is a branch of mathematics focused on the behavior of dynamical systems that are … Continue reading

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Presidential Stock Market Returns

We’ve been busy crunching data from the Measuring Worth website on the Dow Jones Industrial Stock Index returns for each Presidents’ administration  going all the way back to Teddy Roosevelt.  We find the data very interesting and will, mostly, let it … Continue reading

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