Category Archives: Euro

QOTD 2.0: More Inflation Cometh

The question is:  Has the aircraft carrier of rising global inflation finally left port? Big fiscal stimulus planned in U.S. with labor shortages.  Hmm….  And tariffs on imports increasing. Even China has reversed its deflationary forces. You know when aircraft … Continue reading

Posted in Euro, Fiscal Cliff Monitor, Inflation/Deflation, Uncategorized, US Releases | Tagged , | 2 Comments

Sovereign Risk and Debt Crises

We received some interesting pushback on our recent post, Is the U.S. Government Bankrupt?  Not Even Close. The purpose of the post was to remind readers to not ignore the left side of a government’s balance sheet — assets —  … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Euro, Eurozone Sovereign Spreads, Italy, Japan, Uncategorized | Tagged , | Leave a comment

French Oat-German Bund 10-year Spread

Notice on the chart the Oat-Bund spread coming in 25 bps in past week.  We are buyers of a French dip.  See here and here. An apparent threat by far-right leader Marine le Pen to punish state employees who “persecute” … Continue reading

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Trump & Le Pen compared in 90 seconds – FT

Gideon Rachman, the FT’s chief foreign affairs commentator, compares the movements behind US president Donald Trump and French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen – in 90 seconds. ► Subscribe to the Financial Times on YouTube: http://bit.ly/FTimeSubs  

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Will Fillon Scandal Boost Le Pen and Macron? – WSJ

Published on Feb 1, 2017 He was the front-runner in the race to become France’s next president. But have allegations that François Fillon misused public funds created an opening for far-right leader Marine Le Pen and centrist Emmanuel Macron? WSJ’s … Continue reading

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French Oat-German Bund 10-year Spread

The spread on the French 10-year and German 10-year widened almost 10 bps this week and is now approaching 2014 highs.  François Fillon prospects in the betting markets dropped like a stone in the past week over the scandal his … Continue reading

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Renzi Fustigazione!

http://www.repubblica.it/static/speciale/2016/referendum/costituzionale/    

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Italian PM to quit after voters reject his constitutional reforms – EuroNews

Published on Dec 4, 2016 Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi is to resign following a heavy defeat in Sunday’s constitutional reform referendum. Although ostensibly on plans to streamline parliament the poll was largely seen as a confidence vote in the … Continue reading

Posted in Euro, Eurozone Sovereign Spreads, Geopolitical, Italian Yields, Italy | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Our Quick Analysis of the U.S. Presidential Election

Why did everyone miss it? Polls and pundits missed it due to “Bradley Effect” — “The Bradley effect (less commonly known as the Wilder effect) is a theory concerning observed discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in some … Continue reading

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Week Ahead — Brexit outlook, Nike results – FT

Fallout from Brexit, results for athletic clothing maker Nike and voting for Australia’s national election. Seb Morton-Clark takes a look at some of the top stories for the coming week. ► Subscribe to the Financial Times on YouTube: http://bit.ly/FTimeSubs (click … Continue reading

Posted in Banking, Euro, Eurozone Sovereign Spreads, Fed | Leave a comment