Category Archives: Fed

Fed Balance Sheet Run-Off Is Smaller Than Caps

We’re not sure if we heard Chairman Powell clarify the total balance sheet run-off for 2019, which is important as the pundits are throwing around a number a $600 billion reduction.   Completely false. We project the total run-off in 2019 … Continue reading

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Short Covering In Bond Pits And The S&P

Well, the virtual bond pits. Looks like specs are getting spooked and covering their bond shorts. Stunning, however,  that the 10-year note yield is right about where it was on September 21st when the S&P500 made its intraday all-time high … Continue reading

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Where The Next Financial Crisis Begins

We are not sure of how the next financial crisis will exactly unfold but reasonably confident it will have its roots in the following analysis.   Maybe it has already begun. The U.S. Treasury market is the center of the financial … Continue reading

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FOMC: Hardly Tight, Hardly Loco

The data speaks for itself. Real Effective Fed Funds Rate (REFFR) The real effective Fed Funds rate (REFFR), the Federal Reserve’s target rate of overnight commercial bank reserves lending rate less the CPI year-on-year change,  remains negative for the 36th … Continue reading

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Browbeating the Fed 2.0

As the market melt and President Trump ramps up his rhetoric on Fed rate hikes, we thought you’d be interested in our July post. By the way,  the geopolitics in the Taiwan strait are growing much hotter since we wrote.  … Continue reading

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QOTD: Slouching Toward A Banana Republic

Could it be the markets are instead revolting against President Trump’s fiscal profligacy, and beginning to price in a potential debt crisis/major interest rate spike?   Just askin’. “I think the Fed is making a mistake. They are so tight. I … Continue reading

Posted in Equities, Fed, Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 3 Comments

QE’s Fading Legacy Moving Long Yields Higher

Summary The legacy of the Fed’s QE is fading in the bond auctions For the first time in several years, SOMA did not and will not participate in any of the September or October Treasury auctions The Treasury has to … Continue reading

Posted in Debt, Fed, Fiscal Policy, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

Why Gold Is Such A Dog

Summary Gold prices have been in a bear market since the August 2011 peak at $1920 Prices are making new 52-week lows Gold has primarily been a monetary asset throughout history and moves closely with the global monetary base (GMB), … Continue reading

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Is Trump Starting To Lean On The Fed Or Setting It Up?

President Trump said in an interview with CNBC’s Joe Kernan this morning he “does not agree”, is not “thrilled” or “happy” with the FOMC’s interest rate hikes.  The full interview and transcripts will be available tomorrow. Click here for excerpt … Continue reading

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Cleveland Fed Dishes On Yield Curve Signal

Check out the latest from the Cleveland Fed president,  Loretta Mester: Mester advised that there is “no evidence” for thinking that a flatter curve signals a weaker economy at this time, Reuters reported. She added that “structural factors,” such as bond-buying by central … Continue reading

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