Category Archives: Fiscal Policy

Social Security In Deficit = More Public Treasury Borrowing

Summary Largely ignored by the markets,  Social Security moved into structural deficit this year Social Security has been running primary deficits since the GFC; that is financing itself by the interest earned on Treasury securities The government will no longer … Continue reading

Posted in Fiscal Policy, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 3 Comments

QE’s Fading Legacy Moving Long Yields Higher

Summary The legacy of the Fed’s QE is fading in the bond auctions For the first time in several years, SOMA did not and will not participate in any of the September or October Treasury auctions The Treasury has to … Continue reading

Posted in Debt, Fed, Fiscal Policy, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market 2.0

Here it is, folks,  the final product. It is a beast.  One famous blogger said of it, “This post is so big, you can see it from space.” We hope you take the time to give it a thorough read.  … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Emerging Markets, Fiscal Policy, Inflation/Deflation, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 34 Comments

The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market

Summary Our analysis provides kind of a Grand Unified Theory (GUT) of what is currently taking place in global financial markets The massive borrowing by the U.S. Treasury is crowding out emerging markets capital flows The structural factors that have kept long-term … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Capital Flows, Emerging Markets, Fiscal Policy, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 54 Comments

Who Is Funding The U.S. Budget Deficit?

Here is a little teaser for our coming post on the Treasury market, which should be out tomorrow.  The latest data is from the Flow of Funds just posted by the Federal Reserve Board (FRB). Note,  less gold (Fed) and … Continue reading

Posted in Capital Flows, Charts, Debt, Fiscal Policy, Politics, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

QOTD: Jamie Dimon

Bad policies lead to bad outcomes.  –  Jamie Dimon,  July 30, 2018 (QOTD = Quote of the Day)

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iPhone Demand Sparks New Worries For Apple | CNBC

Thought tax cuts were going to lead us to the new economic Shangri-La? Random thought:  We hear much about how the corporate tax cut has changed the game for profits.   Isn’t this just the government jumping into the financial engineering … Continue reading

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Pas de merde…

…and wait until they internalize these numbers. Bond traders are beginning to be concerned about rising deficits and national debt again https://t.co/VeBwC2yUWS #fixthedebt — Fix the Debt (@FixtheDebt) March 13, 2018

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The History of Federal Government Shutdowns

Background The routine activities of most federal agencies are funded annually by one or more of the regular appropriations acts. When action on the regular appropriations acts is delayed, a continuing appropriations act, also sometimes referred to as a continuing … Continue reading

Posted in Fiscal Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 30 Comments

Did He Really Say That?

Geeezo Christopher Columbus!   What a bitch slap directly to the face of “the deplorables.” The tax reform bill is rapidly setting up the potential for some major political blowback.  Vive les élites! I think not having the estate tax … Continue reading

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