Category Archives: Fiscal Policy

The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market 2.0

Here it is, folks,  the final product. It is a beast.  One famous blogger said of it, “This post is so big, you can see it from space.” We hope you take the time to give it a thorough read.  … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Emerging Markets, Fiscal Policy, Inflation/Deflation, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

The Gathering Storm In The Treasury Market

Summary Our analysis provides kind of a Grand Unified Theory (GUT) of what is currently taking place in global financial markets The massive borrowing by the U.S. Treasury is crowding out emerging markets capital flows The structural factors that have kept long-term … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Bonds, Budget Deficit, Capital Flows, Emerging Markets, Fiscal Policy, Interest Rates, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 54 Comments

Who Is Funding The U.S. Budget Deficit?

Here is a little teaser for our coming post on the Treasury market, which should be out tomorrow.  The latest data is from the Flow of Funds just posted by the Federal Reserve Board (FRB). Note,  less gold (Fed) and … Continue reading

Posted in Capital Flows, Charts, Debt, Fiscal Policy, Politics, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

QOTD: Jamie Dimon

Bad policies lead to bad outcomes.  –  Jamie Dimon,  July 30, 2018 (QOTD = Quote of the Day)

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iPhone Demand Sparks New Worries For Apple | CNBC

Thought tax cuts were going to lead us to the new economic Shangri-La? Random thought:  We hear much about how the corporate tax cut has changed the game for profits.   Isn’t this just the government jumping into the financial engineering … Continue reading

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Pas de merde…

…and wait until they internalize these numbers. Bond traders are beginning to be concerned about rising deficits and national debt again #fixthedebt — Fix the Debt (@FixtheDebt) March 13, 2018

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The History of Federal Government Shutdowns

Background The routine activities of most federal agencies are funded annually by one or more of the regular appropriations acts. When action on the regular appropriations acts is delayed, a continuing appropriations act, also sometimes referred to as a continuing … Continue reading

Posted in Fiscal Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 30 Comments

Did He Really Say That?

Geeezo Christopher Columbus!   What a bitch slap directly to the face of “the deplorables.” The tax reform bill is rapidly setting up the potential for some major political blowback.  Vive les élites! I think not having the estate tax … Continue reading

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Corporate Tax Rates and Tax Receipts

Here are some interesting data on the U.S. corporate tax rate throughout the last hundred years and a chart of federal tax receipts on corporate income as a percent of GDP.  We gathered the data from the Tax Policy Center … Continue reading

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No Worries: Vol Not Priced For Budget Ceiling

Do the markets price risk anymore?   That it is always inevitable when the world is awash with central bank based liquidity is not a surprise. We do see the VIX creeping back over 10 after trading with 8 handle for … Continue reading

Posted in Equities, Fiscal Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 6 Comments