Category Archives: France

French Oat-German Bund 10-year Spread

The Oat-Bund 10-year spread came in almost 20 bps after last Sunday’s first round of the French presidential election.   The Euro strengthened v. the dollar about 1 1/2 percent and was up about 2.3 percent for the month of April. … Continue reading

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Will France Launch The Molotov Cocktail?

The Oat-Bund 10-year spread came in almost 10 bps last week.  The Euro rallied a little over 1 percent. A disillusioned and highly undecided French electorate head to the polls tomorrow to choose the two candidates (unless one wins an … Continue reading

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French Oat-German Bund 10-year Spread

The Oat-Bund yield spread widened out about 7 bps this past week.  Hard left anti-EU candidate, Jean-Luc Mélenchon,  is making a late charge turning the first round of the presidential election into a 4-way horse race.    Though  Le Penn and … Continue reading

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French Oat-German Bund 10-year Spread

The Oat-Bund 10-year spread was pretty much unchanged for the week at 65 bps. The German 10-year yield fell over 10 bps for the week. Macron is slipping a bit in first round polling, but remains way ahead in the … Continue reading

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French Oat-German Bund 10-year Spread

The spread widened by about 5 bps this past week.   Macron still holds a slight lead in first round polling over Le Pen.   France’s Polling Commission of false reports by Russian news agencies, France’s polling watchdog has issued a warning … Continue reading

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French Oat-German Bund 10-year Spread

The Oat-Bund spread came in 8 bps last week probably on the back of a new poll showing the centrist. Emmanuel Macron, gaining ground. Macron is opening it up in second round polling, 30 points ahead of Le Pen,  but … Continue reading

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French Oat-German Bund 10-year Spread

But our sense is and what we are seeing in the European street is that these countries are repelled and more willing to run away from Trump rather than attracted to and running to him. –  Global Macro Monitor,  February … Continue reading

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French Oat-German Bund 10-year Spread

The 10-year France-German bond spread widened a couple basis points this past week, probably due to a general repricing in sovereign bonds in the euro zone on the back of Mario Draghi’s perceived hawkish statements at the ECB meeting on … Continue reading

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French Oat-German Bund 10-year Spread

Notice on the chart the Oat-Bund spread coming in 25 bps in past week.  We are buyers of a French dip.  See here and here. An apparent threat by far-right leader Marine le Pen to punish state employees who “persecute” … Continue reading

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Les misérables: French people are the most pessimistic on Earth

Though we are buying the French Dip, that is the sell-off over worries of a Le Pen presidency in France,  the latest poll cited by today’s Economist does make us a little nervous.  We saw in November how unpredictable an … Continue reading

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