Category Archives: Geopolitical

The Word for Today: Thucydides Trap

The Greek historian’s metaphor reminds us of the attendant dangers when a rising power rivals a ruling power—as Athens challenged Sparta in ancient Greece, or as Germany did Britain a century ago. Most such contests have ended badly, often for … Continue reading

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Talking ’bout Mexico – JT

So King David at thinkinthemorning.com sends over an article showing U.S. stocks with revenue exposure to Mexico.   Starts us thinking about who is smarter,  equity traders or currency traders,  who follows who,  or who is fooled by randomness? . … Continue reading

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What Really Keeps Us Up At Night – Do The Math

Lots of these being drawn up by the new U.S. administration. The one that scares us most is this: Mattis: US will defend Japanese islands claimed by China – CNN And today we hear this: China sails warships near islands … Continue reading

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Tremors in the Eurozone (Again)

The France OAT-German Bund 10-year blew out another 12 bps today.  This is off our charts going back to December 2012.   The FT reports, “Markets underpriced the political risks in 2016 and they are determined not to do the … Continue reading

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Building a Wall Between the U.S. and Mexico – Stratfor

Stratfor Latin America Analyst Reggie Thompson discusses the steps that would have to be taken before the construction of a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border could begin. For more analysis, visit: http://www.Stratfor.com  

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Saudi Arabia’s Economic and Demographic Reckoning – Stratfor

Stratfor Middle East Analyst Emily Hawthorne looks at the factors complicating Riyadh’s latest effort at reform. For more analysis, visit: http://www.Stratfor.com

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USA vs CHINA – BBC 2016 (Must View)

Things are starting to heat up in the Taiwan Straight and only to get hotter under the Trump Administration.  This BBC video is great background. China’s foreign ministry hit back in a statement advising Trump, a billionaire property tycoon who … Continue reading

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Stress Test The Rose Colored Glasses!

Good piece by Bloomberg, The Pessimist’s Guide to 2017.  Always prudent to stress test your optimistic view as to what could go wrong. The Pessimist’s Guide to 2017 December 5, 2016 By John Fraher, Flavia Krause-Jackson and Mira Rojanasakul Donald Trump … Continue reading

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Italian PM to quit after voters reject his constitutional reforms – EuroNews

Published on Dec 4, 2016 Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi is to resign following a heavy defeat in Sunday’s constitutional reform referendum. Although ostensibly on plans to streamline parliament the poll was largely seen as a confidence vote in the … Continue reading

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Preview: Fourth-Quarter Forecast – StratFor

Stratfor Vice President of Global Analysis Reva Goujon discusses how tension across the globe will keep the next U.S. president fully occupied. See the whole forecast on Oct. 10. For more analysis, visit: http://www.Stratfor.com (click here if video is not … Continue reading

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