Category Archives: Geopolitical

Trannies Reclaim 200-day, KOSPI Bounces

All the major U.S. stocks indices recovered from steep losses, and then some, after the North Korean missile test, though decliners slightly outpaced advancers on the NYSE. The Dow Transports, which led the recent bout of volatility, reclaimed its 200-day … Continue reading

Posted in Equities, Geopolitical, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

Transports And North Korea On The Radar

On August 1st we warned in our post, Watch This Space – Industrials v Transports, to monitor the Dow Industrials-Transports divergence: Not as relevant as it used to be,  but something to keep on your radar.  Transports approaching 200-day moving average … Continue reading

Posted in Equities, Geopolitical, Politics, President Trump, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

No Worries In The South Korean Markets

We have been writing a lot these days about how crude oil is not pricing any geopolitical risk of a very messy Middle East.  See here and here. That’s nothing, however,  compared to the performance of the South Korean stock … Continue reading

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History’s Biggest “Butterfly Effect” Occurred On This Day

The butterfly effect is the concept that small causes can have large effects. Initially, it was used with weather prediction but later the term became a metaphor used in and out of science. In chaos theory, the butterfly effect is … Continue reading

Posted in Economics, Geopolitical, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 15 Comments

Did Jacques Chirac Wreck A Plan To Exile Saddam to Saudi?

File this one under, “What If.” We have a very good source who tells us that the U.S. and the major European and Arab powers had a plan to exile Saddam Hussein to Saudi Arabia before the Iraq war began … Continue reading

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The Word for Today: Thucydides Trap

The Greek historian’s metaphor reminds us of the attendant dangers when a rising power rivals a ruling power—as Athens challenged Sparta in ancient Greece, or as Germany did Britain a century ago. Most such contests have ended badly, often for … Continue reading

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Talking ’bout Mexico – JT

So King David at sends over an article showing U.S. stocks with revenue exposure to Mexico.   Starts us thinking about who is smarter,  equity traders or currency traders,  who follows who,  or who is fooled by randomness? . … Continue reading

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What Really Keeps Us Up At Night – Do The Math

Lots of these being drawn up by the new U.S. administration. The one that scares us most is this: Mattis: US will defend Japanese islands claimed by China – CNN And today we hear this: China sails warships near islands … Continue reading

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Tremors in the Eurozone (Again)

The France OAT-German Bund 10-year blew out another 12 bps today.  This is off our charts going back to December 2012.   The FT reports, “Markets underpriced the political risks in 2016 and they are determined not to do the … Continue reading

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Building a Wall Between the U.S. and Mexico – Stratfor

Stratfor Latin America Analyst Reggie Thompson discusses the steps that would have to be taken before the construction of a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border could begin. For more analysis, visit:  

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