Category Archives: Inflation/Deflation

QOTD: Paul Tudor Jones

Note, no mention of “recession”, the trigger for the cheerleaders.  The bear market of    1962 and 1987 occurred with robust economic growth. You look at every bear market and they’ve always basically occurred because of an uptick in inflation … Continue reading

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Inflation Rising…Super Spike In Yields Coming?

Yield curve flattening trades will flatten you in the next six months.  The march toward 4 percent on the 10-year will continue after record shorts square up positions just a little bit more. Inflation moving higher. Moreover, the supply/demand flow … Continue reading

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Inflation Is Here, Get Used To It

I stopped to grab a burger in Marin County today and was kind of shocked to see the following posted on the front door.     That is a pretty steep starting wage for nonskilled labor, and $5.00 more than … Continue reading

Posted in Equities, Food Prices, Inflation/Deflation, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 55 Comments

Inflation Indicators: Measures & Composition

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Upward Pressure On Interest Rates To Continue

Though wage inflation came in nice and cool on Friday,  the following chart illustrates why upward pressure on long-term interest rates will continue.   We updated our Who’s Funding The U.S. Budget Deficit chart with the just released Flow of Funds … Continue reading

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Lies, Damned Lies, And Statistics…And The CPI

The first three of those words are attributed to the British Prime Minister,  Benjamin Disraeli, and also sometimes associated with Mark Twain. You know our skepticism of most government data, especially the BLS calculation of inflation in consumer goods and … Continue reading

Posted in Inflation/Deflation, Uncategorized | Tagged , | 125 Comments

FT Forecasts 2018: Fastest global growth since the crisis

The FT’s chief economics commentator Martin Wolf predicts that next year will see the fastest global economic growth since before the financial crisis. Unemployment will fall and productivity will likely pick up before signs of overheating emerge, forcing a potential … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Inflation/Deflation | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Supply (lack of ) Driven Bull Market

I had an interesting conversation with an economist friend this morning about inflation and excess capacity. He sees no evidence of excess capacity in the U.S. economy, including the service sector, where he cannot find, say, a plumber for hire … Continue reading

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What’s The Matter With Inflation?

What’s The Matter Kansas  inflation? The divergence of official inflation as measured by the government versus inflation realized by the consumer and businesses has never been greater, in our opinion.   Go ask anybody on the street in America and … Continue reading

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Asset Markets, The Sports Illustrated Jinx, And The Dodgers

Why do stocks and assets markets crash? Why is there is a Sports Illustrated jinx and magazine cover stories often signal a sign of a top or bottom of the subject being portrayed? Regression to the mean, or, more simply, … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Equities, Housing, Inflation/Deflation, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 17 Comments