Category Archives: Inflation/Deflation

FT Forecasts 2018: Fastest global growth since the crisis

The FT’s chief economics commentator Martin Wolf predicts that next year will see the fastest global economic growth since before the financial crisis. Unemployment will fall and productivity will likely pick up before signs of overheating emerge, forcing a potential … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Inflation/Deflation | Tagged , | 1 Comment

Supply (lack of ) Driven Bull Market

I had an interesting conversation with an economist friend this morning about inflation and excess capacity. He sees no evidence of excess capacity in the U.S. economy, including the service sector, where he cannot find, say, a plumber for hire … Continue reading

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What’s The Matter With Inflation?

What’s The Matter Kansas  inflation? The divergence of official inflation as measured by the government versus inflation realized by the consumer and businesses has never been greater, in our opinion.   Go ask anybody on the street in America and … Continue reading

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Asset Markets, The Sports Illustrated Jinx, And The Dodgers

Why do stocks and assets markets crash? Why is there is a Sports Illustrated jinx and magazine cover stories often signal a sign of a top or bottom of the subject being portrayed? Regression to the mean, or, more simply, … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Equities, Housing, Inflation/Deflation, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 17 Comments

QOTD: Super Mario Speaks

“Deflationary forces have been replaced by reflationary ones.”  – Mario Draghi

Posted in ECB, Euro, Inflation/Deflation, Monetary Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Of Course, There’s No Inflation. NOT!

Okay,  before the emails hit – it’s peak load pricing or a relative price increase. There, satisfied? Buyer pays $133K for two courtside tickets to Game 5 of NBA Finals A person paid $133,000, including fees, for two floor seats … Continue reading

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QOTD 2.0: More Inflation Cometh

The question is:  Has the aircraft carrier of rising global inflation finally left port? Big fiscal stimulus planned in U.S. with labor shortages.  Hmm….  And tariffs on imports increasing. Even China has reversed its deflationary forces. You know when aircraft … Continue reading

Posted in Euro, Fiscal Cliff Monitor, Inflation/Deflation, Uncategorized, US Releases | Tagged , | 2 Comments

QOTD: Inflation Cometh

The key takeaway from this morning’s punk GDP report: Meanwhile, Inflation advanced at a 2.4% annual pace in the first quarter, according to the personal-consumption expenditures, or PCE index. The PCE index–the preferred inflation gauge of the Federal Reserve–easily topped … Continue reading

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Inflation Runs Hot, Hot, Hot

CPI out this morning,  up 0.6 percent for January, more than double the 0.3 percent that was expected.  The hottest number since February 2013.  The main culprit was the rise in the cost of gasoline, which accounted for half the … Continue reading

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World Consumer Inflation Rates

We have ranked the world’s 2016 consumer inflation rates by country in the ginormous table below.  The data are from the October 2016 IMF’s World Economic Outlook database.  Note, 2016 are IMF estimates. But, first, check out the low inflation, … Continue reading

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