Category Archives: Inflation/Deflation

Inflation Indicators: Measures & Composition


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Upward Pressure On Interest Rates To Continue

Though wage inflation came in nice and cool on Friday,  the following chart illustrates why upward pressure on long-term interest rates will continue.   We updated our Who’s Funding The U.S. Budget Deficit chart with the just released Flow of Funds … Continue reading

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Lies, Damned Lies, And Statistics…And The CPI

The first three of those words are attributed to the British Prime Minister,  Benjamin Disraeli, and also sometimes associated with Mark Twain. You know our skepticism of most government data, especially the BLS calculation of inflation in consumer goods and … Continue reading

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FT Forecasts 2018: Fastest global growth since the crisis

The FT’s chief economics commentator Martin Wolf predicts that next year will see the fastest global economic growth since before the financial crisis. Unemployment will fall and productivity will likely pick up before signs of overheating emerge, forcing a potential … Continue reading

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Supply (lack of ) Driven Bull Market

I had an interesting conversation with an economist friend this morning about inflation and excess capacity. He sees no evidence of excess capacity in the U.S. economy, including the service sector, where he cannot find, say, a plumber for hire … Continue reading

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What’s The Matter With Inflation?

What’s The Matter Kansas  inflation? The divergence of official inflation as measured by the government versus inflation realized by the consumer and businesses has never been greater, in our opinion.   Go ask anybody on the street in America and … Continue reading

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Asset Markets, The Sports Illustrated Jinx, And The Dodgers

Why do stocks and assets markets crash? Why is there is a Sports Illustrated jinx and magazine cover stories often signal a sign of a top or bottom of the subject being portrayed? Regression to the mean, or, more simply, … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, Equities, Housing, Inflation/Deflation, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , | 17 Comments

QOTD: Super Mario Speaks

“Deflationary forces have been replaced by reflationary ones.”  – Mario Draghi

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Of Course, There’s No Inflation. NOT!

Okay,  before the emails hit – it’s peak load pricing or a relative price increase. There, satisfied? Buyer pays $133K for two courtside tickets to Game 5 of NBA Finals A person paid $133,000, including fees, for two floor seats … Continue reading

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QOTD 2.0: More Inflation Cometh

The question is:  Has the aircraft carrier of rising global inflation finally left port? Big fiscal stimulus planned in U.S. with labor shortages.  Hmm….  And tariffs on imports increasing. Even China has reversed its deflationary forces. You know when aircraft … Continue reading

Posted in Euro, Fiscal Cliff Monitor, Inflation/Deflation, Uncategorized, US Releases | Tagged , | 2 Comments