Category Archives: Politics

How Presidential Scandal Endangers Global Stability

In our latest post, Beware Shorting Impeachments,  we noted: Bad things tend to happen in the world when the U.S. administration is distracted and looks weakened by political scandal.  And, believe us, there is a legion of bad things out there … Continue reading

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Beware Shorting Impeachments

We’ve analyzed the behavior of the S&P500 during the Watergate impeachment hearings and the Clinton impeachment.  If you’re shorting risk markets solely based on speculation that President Trump may be impeached, maybe you should think again. Let’s first look at … Continue reading

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COTD: U.S. Population By County Size

Wow!  More than half of the U.S. population lives in only 144 counties or just about 4.5 percent of the total number of counties throughout the United States. Keep that context when you see one of these political maps.

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Now We Worry

The way, the why, the timing of the firing of FBI Director,  James Comey, baffles us.   No partisanship here,  however. But now we worry.   We wrote in February, When we held positions overnight on Wall Street, we used to … Continue reading

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Will France Launch The Molotov Cocktail?

The Oat-Bund 10-year spread came in almost 10 bps last week.  The Euro rallied a little over 1 percent. A disillusioned and highly undecided French electorate head to the polls tomorrow to choose the two candidates (unless one wins an … Continue reading

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The Great Recession, Debt Growth, and Economic Policy

Look no further than the latest Flow of Funds data from the Federal Reserve Board to get a snapshot of what’s happened in the U.S. economy during the new millennium. Because “credit is the mother’s milk of the economy” let’s … Continue reading

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A Country Off Sides Politically

Is it just us or do you feel the same political angst that seems to be pervasive throughout the country that we do?   Things not only feel surreal but there seems to be a prevailing sense of eeriness haunting our … Continue reading

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French Oat-German Bund 10-year Spread

The Oat-Bund spread came in 8 bps last week probably on the back of a new poll showing the centrist. Emmanuel Macron, gaining ground. Macron is opening it up in second round polling, 30 points ahead of Le Pen,  but … Continue reading

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A Few Thoughts On Why Health Care Went Down

OK, comrades, let’s check our partisanship at the door and deal with some real analysis on the health care bill that just went down in flames. Here are a few of our thoughts on why the Trump/Ryan healthcare bill to … Continue reading

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French Oat-German Bund 10-year Spread

But our sense is and what we are seeing in the European street is that these countries are repelled and more willing to run away from Trump rather than attracted to and running to him. –  Global Macro Monitor,  February … Continue reading

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