Category Archives: Sovereign Debt

Stocks And Bonds Now Joined At The Hip

Market Recovery The U.S. stock market rallied Friday on the six bps decline in the 10-year Treasury yield.  The S&P500 has now recovered 63.09 percent of its peak-to-low loss.  We are looking for 2,805 on the S&P500 for a green … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Equities, Sovereign Debt, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

FOMC: A Big Double Cheese Non-Burger

Monetary policy history made today. The  Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  confirmed it would begin its long-awaited quantitative tightening (QT). In October, the Committee will initiate the balance sheet normalization program described in the June 2017 Addendum to the Committee’s … Continue reading

Posted in China, Euro, Eurozone Sovereign Spreads, Fed, German Bund, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Debt | Tagged , | 2 Comments

Is the U.S. Government Bankrupt? Not Even Close.

We often hear the meme “the U.S. is the next Greece.”   “The government is insolvent.”  Complete nonsense. We tend to focus too much on the right side of the government’s balance sheet and not the left side — the … Continue reading

Posted in Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Debt | Tagged , , | 5 Comments

The Broken Bond Market

The Fed tightens on Wednesday and bonds rally.  What the hay? GaveKal, Jeff Gundlach,  and Jim Bianco nailed it in that every spec and their mother are/were short 10-year Treasuries. Source: Quandl (see here for interactive chart) But this is … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , , | 52 Comments

Euro Debt Constraining Growth – FT

Ralph Atkins, the FT’s capital markets editor, discusses high private sector debt levels in the eurozone with Moritz Kraemer, S&P’s chief sovereign ratings officer. Mr Kramer says Europe is ‘in for the long haul’ on debt deleveraging. For more video … Continue reading

Posted in Euro, Eurozone Sovereign Spreads, Sovereign Debt | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

WTF Were They Thinking?

That’s our System 1 (fast) thinking  kicking in after hearing the news of the Cyprus bail-in of depositors.  Our fast thinking really fears contagion and makes us want to vendere la casa!   We often get into trouble trading with … Continue reading

Posted in ECB, Equities, Euro, Germany, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 7 Comments

Eurozone Sovereign Spreads Since Italy’s Election

ECB president, Mario Draghi, spoke in this morning’s press conference about how contagion has been contained in the eurozone bond markets since the Italian elections.   The data are in and he is right. The markets had closed before the election … Continue reading

Posted in German Bund, Germany, Italian Yields, Italy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Who Owns the U.S. Treasury Market?

The 10-year Treasury bond yield traded at 2.03 percent today a level not seen since April 2012. We thought it’s a good time to revisit who are the major holders of U.S. Treasury securities.   Some of the data are … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Fiscal Policy, Interest Rates, Sovereign Debt | Tagged , , | 8 Comments

VIX Has Largest Weekly Down Move Since Inception

The CBOE has a nice piece out noting this week’s 39.1 percent collapse in the VIX was the largest weekly percent down move since the index was launched in January 1990.  The week also saw record volume days for the … Continue reading

Posted in Global Stock Performance, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Debt | Tagged , , , | 4 Comments

Cue ‘Plan C’ Cliff Aversion Scheme

President Obama proposed a package of middle-class tax cuts and unempoyment benefits as a temporary solution to the looming ‘fiscal cliff.’ White House correspondent David Nakamura says Republicans may face pressure to pass the measure. Hope the pols have, at … Continue reading

Posted in Fiscal Cliff Monitor, Fiscal Policy, Sovereign Debt | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment