Category Archives: Sovereign Risk

The Broken Bond Market

The Fed tightens on Wednesday and bonds rally.  What the hay? GaveKal, Jeff Gundlach,  and Jim Bianco nailed it in that every spec and their mother are/were short 10-year Treasuries. Source: Quandl (see here for interactive chart) But this is … Continue reading

Posted in Bonds, Monetary Policy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , , , | 23 Comments

European bonds suffer from uncertainty – FT

Keep some powder dry to buy the French Dip.    That is,  the market panic over the  Euro elections,  if there is one. The French will hold the populist “Maginot Line” and Le Pen will lose in the second round, “bigly“.  … Continue reading

Posted in Eurozone Sovereign Spreads, Politics, Sovereign Risk, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Russia’s planned bond issuance – FT

The FT’s Neil Buckley explains the implications of Russia’s planned bond issuance, as the combination of sanctions and low oil prices put pressure on the economy. For more video content from the Financial Times, visit http://www.FT.com/video (click here if video … Continue reading

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WTF Were They Thinking?

That’s our System 1 (fast) thinking  kicking in after hearing the news of the Cyprus bail-in of depositors.  Our fast thinking really fears contagion and makes us want to vendere la casa!   We often get into trouble trading with … Continue reading

Posted in ECB, Equities, Euro, Germany, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 7 Comments

Eurozone Sovereign Spreads Since Italy’s Election

ECB president, Mario Draghi, spoke in this morning’s press conference about how contagion has been contained in the eurozone bond markets since the Italian elections.   The data are in and he is right. The markets had closed before the election … Continue reading

Posted in German Bund, Germany, Italian Yields, Italy, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Ciao, Mario Monti!

This is not good.  Not totally unexpected.  Cue Italy and France in 2013.  Maybe. (click here if video is not observable)

Posted in Euro, France, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Back to Wartime Debt Levels

The IMF’s World Economic Outlook is out with some great charts and we post one of them right here. Last week the Fund’s managing director,  Christine Lagarde, issued a chilling warning on the global debt overhang, Ms Lagrde had earlier … Continue reading

Posted in Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

French Protest for Debt Relief

We agree the world does need an international bankruptcy court for sovereign debt.  Complicated to implement, however.   Nevertheless,  clear rules on recourse for creditors and relief for borrowers would limit the economic damage of sovereign panics. Around the world protesters … Continue reading

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Germany’s FinMin says court to back European bail out fund

(click here if video is not observable)

Posted in Germany, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk, Spain | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Enter the Draghi (Plan)

The only thing new in the “Draghi Plan”, as far as we can see,  is the potential big bazooka #4  — unsterilized (?) purchases of periphery bonds by the  ECB. Still,  though, countries will have to submit to conditionality — … Continue reading

Posted in ECB, Euro, Italian Yields, PIIGS, Sovereign Debt, Sovereign Risk, Spain | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment