Tag Archives: China

COTD: China Levers Up As ROW Does Opposite

We knew that credit expansion is the mother’s milk of economic growth,  but even this chart surprised us.   The global nominal private non-financial debt level x/ China has been flat since 2008.   As in flat in nominal terms not as … Continue reading

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Shanghai Breakout

Man, emerging market equities are in total beast mode. The emerging markets index MSCI Ishares ETF (EEM) is up almost 30 percent on the year.  Turkey and Argentian up almost 40 percent.  India,  Brazil, and Korea almost 20 percent. Emerging … Continue reading

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China Obsessed With Wealth Effect

We discussed the increasing role of the “wealth effect” in U.S. monetary policy and a key driver of aggregate demand in out last post,  The Gold-Bond Correlation And Other Macro Observations. Nothing compared to China, however. Why are investments so … Continue reading

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QOTD: AI And China

China recognizes that AI will be critical to its future “comprehensive national power” – The Diplomat

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COTD: Guess Who Is Growing And Who Is Not?

We will give you a hint: …credit is the mother’s milk of growth; without credit the economy cannot flourish. And credit cannot flow freely without a well-functioning financial system. – Mark Zandi But as Japan and the others illustrate, there’s … Continue reading

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COTD: China’s Financial System

. China’s financial system consists of six major entities: The People’s Bank of China, governments, commercial banks, financial institutions, enterprises, and individuals. The People’s Bank of China is a national bank, invested by the government. Though the People’s Bank of … Continue reading

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Emerging Market Dollar Bonds: An Option Based Analysis

In my prior life I used to trade emerging market (EM) bonds and came up with the following analytical framework using options analysis to understand and teach the basic fundamental principles of how to value EM hard currency bonds.   The … Continue reading

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QOTD: Ambiguous China Policy

It used to be said that Ronald Reagan’s “Red China” policy was driven by Nancy:  “don’t serve it on a green table cloth.”    President Trump’s policy?  Yet to be determined. …U.S.-China relations remain in the Schrodinger’s cat-like state they … Continue reading

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Is This Why Gold and Bonds Sold Off?

Truly a mug’s game to try and retrofit fundamentals to short-term market moves, but ain’t gonna stop us! We’ve noted the comovement of the U.S. 10-year T-Note with gold over the past few months, driven, we believe, mainly by geopolitical … Continue reading

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What Really Keeps Us Up At Night – Do The Math

Lots of these being drawn up by the new U.S. administration. The one that scares us most is this: Mattis: US will defend Japanese islands claimed by China – CNN And today we hear this: China sails warships near islands … Continue reading

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