Tag Archives: Correction

No Worries: Vol Not Priced For Budget Ceiling

Do the markets price risk anymore?   That it is always inevitable when the world is awash with central bank based liquidity is not a surprise. We do see the VIX creeping back over 10 after trading with 8 handle for … Continue reading

Posted in Equities, Fiscal Policy, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 6 Comments

Tweet of Yesterday: What a call

Enis Taner from Risk Reversal tweeted this late yesterday.    Note the S&P500 closed at 1574.30.   He really nailed it. For the bulls to breathe a sigh of relief, SPX needs to recapture 1575. If it does not do so … Continue reading

Posted in Equities | Tagged , , , | 2 Comments

Staples Outperformance Signalling a Correction?

Let’s revisit the S&P500 (SPY)  and Consumer Disretionary: Staples ratio (XLY/XLP). Last month we flagged the outperformance of consumer staple stocks relative to consumer discretionary was signaling the pullback albeit a small one — just over 3 percent around the … Continue reading

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S&P500 Testing Key Support

Hard to to discern the cause of the increase in chop in U.S. equities.  Cyprus?  Overbought? Earnings worry?  Strong dollar’s impact on earnings (see Oracle’s release)? Here’s what we said on March 4th: No doubt the stronger dollar will be … Continue reading

Posted in Earnings, Equities | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Correction Time? Now or Never…

The S&P500 had its worst daily decline for the year.  The VIX spiked over 19 percent, its biggest 1-day increase in 2013.  The dollar index closed at its highest level since November 16th,  which was the day the S&P500 bottomed … Continue reading

Posted in Commodities, Dollar, Equities, Gold | Tagged , , , , , | 4 Comments

Dow First to Regain Footing

If the Dow can close here, up almost 200 points, it will be the first major U.S. equity index to regain its footing and close above the key .618 fibonacci retracement of the recent correction.  The other indices are just … Continue reading

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China HSBC Flash PMI At 4-Month Low

The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI is showing further contraction. Could worries over China slowing, coupled with renewed jitters in Europe, be the catalyst for the long awaited correction in global equities?  That’s how we’re positioned, but recognize it’s a … Continue reading

Posted in Black Swan Watch, China, Economics | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

Is the Correction Camp Too Crowded?

We posted yesterday that the S&P500 was set up for a pullback after carving out an outside day (higher high and lower low than previous day) at strong resistance and looked for follow through selling today.   Didn’t happen. In fact, … Continue reading

Posted in Charts, Equities | Tagged , , , | 4 Comments

S&P500 to 1340?

Waiting for a correction in the S&P500 has proven costly for those looking to get longer equities.  Our view is that a move to 1340 is in the cards in the next week or two, which coincides with short-term support … Continue reading

Posted in Equities | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

S&P500 Up 4.36% in January

Interesting couple of charts on the S&P500.  The top shows the narrowing upward channel in which the index has traded since the beginning of the year relative to the wider medium-term channel.  The collapse in volatility was the direct result … Continue reading

Posted in Equities, Global Stock Performance | Tagged , , , | 3 Comments