Tag Archives: France Elections

French Oat-German Bund 10-year Spread

The Oat-Bund yield spread widened out about 7 bps this past week.  Hard left anti-EU candidate, Jean-Luc Mélenchon,  is making a late charge turning the first round of the presidential election into a 4-way horse race.    Though  Le Penn and … Continue reading

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French Oat-German Bund 10-year Spread

The Oat-Bund 10-year spread was pretty much unchanged for the week at 65 bps. The German 10-year yield fell over 10 bps for the week. Macron is slipping a bit in first round polling, but remains way ahead in the … Continue reading

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French Oat-German Bund 10-year Spread

The spread widened by about 5 bps this past week.   Macron still holds a slight lead in first round polling over Le Pen.   France’s Polling Commission of false reports by Russian news agencies, France’s polling watchdog has issued a warning … Continue reading

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French Oat-German Bund 10-year Spread

The Oat-Bund spread came in 8 bps last week probably on the back of a new poll showing the centrist. Emmanuel Macron, gaining ground. Macron is opening it up in second round polling, 30 points ahead of Le Pen,  but … Continue reading

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French Oat-German Bund 10-year Spread

But our sense is and what we are seeing in the European street is that these countries are repelled and more willing to run away from Trump rather than attracted to and running to him. –  Global Macro Monitor,  February … Continue reading

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Les misérables: French people are the most pessimistic on Earth

Though we are buying the French Dip, that is the sell-off over worries of a Le Pen presidency in France,  the latest poll cited by today’s Economist does make us a little nervous.  We saw in November how unpredictable an … Continue reading

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French Oat-German Bund 10-year Spread

To assess Ms Le Pen’s chance of victory, The Economist has compiled current and historic French presidential polls, and used them to build a statistical prediction model. We find that if the first round were held today, Ms Le Pen … Continue reading

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French Oat-German Bund 10-year Spread

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QOTD: France’s Presidential Election

In the first round you vote for the person you want; in the second you vote against the person you fear. – The Spectator

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French Oat-German Bund 10-year Spread

Starting to get interesting.   The French 10-year Oat- German 10-year bund spread widened and closed at its highest level since January 2014 on Friday.  Francois Fillon has dropped like a stone in the past few weeks as the political scandal … Continue reading

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